Michigan football opponent preview, early score prediction: Illinois

A version of this Michigan football opponent preview ran in The Wolverine ‘s 2024 football preview magazine, which can be ordered at TheWolverineOnDemand.com . Here’s a look at the Illinois Fighting Illini , U-M’s Oct. 19 opponent in Champaign.

More Michigan football opponent previews: Fresno State | Texas | Arkansas State | USC | Minnesota | Washington

Illinois quick facts

All-Time Series: Michigan leads 72-23-2
First Meeting: U-M 12, Illinois 5 (Nov. 12, 1898 in Detroit)
Last Meeting: U-M 19, Illinois 17 (Nov. 19, 2022 in Ann Arbor)
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 18-19 at Illinois (fourth year) and 115-77 overall (16th year)
2023 In Review: 5-7, 3-6 Big Ten (T-4th West)
Final 2023 Ranking: Unranked
Returning Starters: 11 (5 offense, 5 defense, 1 specialist)
Last Bowl Appearance: 2022 (ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Mississippi State, L 19-10)

Preview

Illinois hadn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2011 before going 8-5 in its second campaign under head coach Bret Bielema in 2022. The Illini took a step back in 2023, however, going 5-7 and standing as one of four Big Ten West squads to tally a 3-6 record in conference games. Now, the Illini hope to reload and make their third bowl game in the last 10 seasons, but it won’t be easy in a new-look Big Ten. The Illini must play at Penn State (Sept. 28), versus Michigan (Oct. 19) and at Oregon (Oct. 26), and they have a potentially tricky home nonconference tilt against Kansas Sept. 7.

The Illinois defense struggled last season, after ranking first in the country by giving up just 12.8 points per game the year prior. Illinois was 96th nationally in that same category in 2023, checking in 65th against the run and 71st versus the pass. Losing defensive coordinator Ryan Walters — who’s now entering his second year as the head coach at Purdue — was certainly a factor.

Illinois will have to replace both of its starting defensive tackles, including a second-round NFL Draft pick in Jer’Zhan Newton , who recorded 7.5 sacks and was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in 2023.

A positive is that the Illini return their top three tacklers, highlighted by junior linebacker Dylan Rosiek , who topped the squad with 82 stops, including 7.5 for loss, a year ago. The honorable mention All-Big Ten standout is joined in the front seven by senior outside linebacker Seth Coleman , another honorable mention selection who posted a team-high 9 tackles for loss and 6 sacks with 4 pass breakups. Junior outside linebacker Gabe Jacas contributed 4 sacks and looks to make up a formidable edge rusher duo alongside Coleman.

Illinois has just one returning starter in the secondary, but one of its several impact transfer pickups should provide help, with the Illini landing former Texas starting cornerback Terrance Brooks . The 2023 honorable mention All-Big 12 pick joined the team after spring practices.

Junior quarterback Luke Altmyer has said he’s much more comfortable now than he was a year ago, when he transferred in from Ole Miss. Altmyer threw 7 interceptions in his first three outings, before heating up with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in a three-game stretch at the end of the year. He wound up ranking fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (209.2), fourth in completion percentage (64.8) and fifth in passing efficiency (131.9).

Altmyer suffered a concussion late in a Nov. 4 game at Minnesota, though, before backup John Paddock (whose eligibility has since expired) came back in and led the team to victory. Paddock won his next start, an overtime game against Indiana, and played the rest of the season despite Altmyer being available for the final two outings.

While Altmyer has more mojo and the offensive line should be strong, with three returning starters and some transfer-portal additions, the weapons on the outside will likely be a downgrade. Wideout Isaiah Williams became Illinois’ first All-Big Ten first-team performer at the position since 2011, leading the conference by 15 catches with 82 receptions for 1,055 yards and 5 scores. He and second-leading receiver Casey Washington (670 yards, 4 TD) have both moved on to the NFL.

It’ll be a challenge for the Illini to improve upon its dismal 24.5-points per game average from a year ago, but taking care of the ball would be a start, after giving it away on 23 occasions in 2023.

Reasons for optimism

• Impact transfers
• QB Luke Altmyer’s comfort level
• Pass rush

Illinois should have some juice defensively and improved quarterback play, even if there are question marks elsewhere.

Reasons for concern

• Replacing DT Jer’Zhan Newton
• Transfers have to acclimate quickly
• Lack of receiving production

Illinois’ offense was a slog last season, and it won’t help if the defense is once again unable to consistently get stops. A lot of transfers — albeit highly rated ones — will be called upon to perform.

Returning leaders

Passing: Luke Altmyer (1,883 yards, 13 TD)
Rushing: Kaden Feagin (438 yards, 2 TD)
Receiving: Pat Bryant (560 yards, 7 TD)
Tackles: Dylan Rosiek (82)
Sacks: Seth Coleman (6)
Interceptions: Miles Scott, Xavier Scott (2)

Michigan-Illinois early score prediction

Michigan could have some rust after a bye week, but it also may need to recover from some early-season bumps and bruises with a tough schedule early on. The bye comes at a nice time after a trip to Seattle to play Washington.

Illinois was picked 13th in the Big Ten media poll, and they’re one of those unpredictable teams. This could be a tough game on the road — Michigan seems to have at least one per season, even if it’s not expected — but a lot of that will depend on how good Altmyer becomes and if the defense can take a big step forward despite losing a lot.

Prediction: Michigan 31, Illinois 13

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