Michigan football opponent preview, early score prediction: Oregon

A version of this Michigan football opponent preview ran in The Wolverine ‘s 2024 football preview magazine, which can be ordered at TheWolverineOnDemand.com . Here’s a look at the Oregon Ducks , U-M’s Nov. 2 opponent at The Big House.

More Michigan football opponent previews: Fresno State | Texas | Arkansas State | USC | Minnesota | Washington | Illinois | Michigan State

Oregon quick facts

All-Time Series: Michigan leads 3-2
First Meeting: U-M 14, Oregon 0 (Oct. 2, 1948 in Ann Arbor)
Last Meeting: Oregon 39, U-M 7 (Sept. 8, 2007 in Ann Arbor)
Head Coach: Dan Lanning, 22-5 (3rd year) at Oregon and overall
2023 In Review: 12-2, 8-1 Pac-12 (second Pac-12)
Final 2023 Ranking: No. 6 by Associated Press, No. 7 by coaches
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 4 defense, 1 specialist)
Last Bowl Appearance: 2023 (Fiesta Bowl vs. Liberty, W 45-6)

Preview

Oregon has become one of the hottest programs in college football under Dan Lanning , despite its prior two head coaches leaving for other jobs — Willie Taggart (Florida State) and Mario Cristobal (Miami, Fla.). Lanning, the former defensive coordinator at Georgia from 2019-21, engineered a 12-win season in 2023, Oregon’s first since posting 13 victories in 2014. He decided this offseason to stay in Eugene, too, despite receiving interest from Alabama following Nick Saban ’s retirement.

The Ducks checked in first nationally in scoring offense (44.2 points per game) and ninth in scoring defense (16.5 points allowed), stood as high as No. 5 in the CFP rankings and were contenders for the playoff until losing to Washington in the Pac-12 championship game, 34-31.

The one knock on Oregon last season, actually, was its inability to beat the Huskies, which went 14-1 and made the national title game before falling to Michigan, 34-13. The Ducks lost to their rival twice, including a 36-33 setback in Seattle Oct. 14, in which they failed to convert on three fourth-down attempts and blew a late lead.

Oregon had a great chance to compete for a national championship, but instead it beat up on No. 23 Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl, posting a 45-6 statement win. However, the Ducks’ championship window doesn’t appear to be closed. They are viewed as a consensus top-five team entering the 2024 season, having reloaded by adding players through the NCAA transfer portal.

Quarterback Bo Nix was a Heisman Trophy finalist, finishing third in balloting, and wound up the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Oregon replaced him as well as any team could, bringing in Dillon Gabriel , who’s started 49 career games across five seasons (2019-21 at UCF and 2022-23 at Oklahoma). Gabriel, who threw for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns for the 10-3 Sooners a year ago, is tied for fourth in NCAA history in career total touchdowns (152), and ranks seventh in total yards (15,925), eighth in passing yards (14,865) and eighth in passing touchdowns (125).

The Ducks lost some of their top skill position players aside from Nix, but senior wideout Tez Johnson (team-high 86 catches, 1,182 yards, 10 TD), senior tight end Terrance Ferguson (first-team All-Pac-12) and junior running back Jordan James (759 yards, 11 TD) are all expected to step up. The Ducks also possess a high-level offensive tackle duo in junior Josh Conerly Jr. and senior Ajani Cornelius , both of whom earned honorable mention All-Pac-12 nods.

The defense brings back just four starters, including two from a secondary that helped Oregon rank first in the Pac-12 with 215.9 passing yards allowed per contest. The linebacking corps is one of the team’s strengths, led by senior Jeffrey Bassa , who was second on the squad with 72 tackles, 1 interception and 12 quarterback hurries.

The front seven isn’t without its question marks, though. While senior defensive end Jordan Burch is back after registering 7.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks a year ago, the rest of the starting defensive line has departed, including fourth-round pick Brandon Dorlus . The Ducks utilized the portal to add players, including Houston tackle transfer Ja’Maree Caldwell , who tallied 8.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 2023.

Reasons for optimism

• Momentum from last season
• Transfer portal haul
• QB Dillon Gabriel’s addition

Gabriel, an offensive line with three starters back and solid weapons around them should make the Ducks one of the Big Ten’s most prolific offenses.

Reasons for concern

• New starters at offensive skill positions
• Defensive line depth
• Adjustment to Big Ten

It’ll be hard to replicate the special chemistry the 2023 Ducks had, especially with Bo Nix and the offense. There are also question marks up front on defense.

Returning leaders

Passing: Austin Novosad (52 yards)
Rushing: Jordan James (759 yards, 11 TD)
Receiving: Tez Johnson (1,182 yards, 10 TD)
Tackles: Jeffrey Bassa (72)
Sacks: Jordan Burch (3)
Interceptions: Tysheem Johnson (2)

Michigan-Oregon early score prediction

We predicted Michigan to finish the regular season with a 9-3 record and have already picked the Wolverines to lose to Texas. They’ll also be underdogs at Ohio State. This is the obvious third loss if Vegas point spreads in the other games hold, but it’s a complicated one to pick.

Oregon and other new Big Ten members from the Pac-12 are entering uncharted waters. For its round trips to road games at Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin in the second half of its schedule, Oregon will cross 16 time zones. It’ll travel 12,520 miles on the season. There’s no telling what that kind of toll that travel will take on the Ducks, who will also be adjusting to the Big Ten.

This is a toss-up game, but we have a hard time picking the Ducks, so we won’t. Michigan wins a tight, exciting game at The Big House.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Oregon 21

The post Michigan football opponent preview, early score prediction: Oregon appeared first on On3 .