Don't count on a recount to change the winner in close elections this fall. They rarely do

With the American electorate so evenly divided, there will be elections in November close enough that officials will have to recount the votes .

Just don't expect those recounts to change the winner. They rarely do, even when the margins are tiny.

"The (original) count is pretty accurate because the machines work — they work very well," said Tammy Patrick, a former election official in Arizona who is now with the National Association of Election Officials. "We have recounts and we have audits to make sure we got it right."

There have been 36 recounts in statewide general elections since America's most famous recount in 2000. That year, Republican George W. Bush maintained his lead over Democrat Al Gore in Florida — and won the presidency — after the U.S. Supreme Court stopped a recount.

Since then, only three statewide recounts resulted in a new winner — all decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands.

That's according to review of statewide recounts using data from the Associated Press vote count, state election offices and research by FairVote, a nonpartisan organization that researches elections and advocates for changes in the way elections are conducted.

Small margins

Most states allow recounts when the number of votes between the top candidates falls within a specific margin, such as 0.5 percentage points, even when that means the number of votes separating them is actually in the thousands or even tens of thousands. But there is no precedent for a recount changing the winner in a race with margins that big, at least not since Congress made sweeping changes to U.S. election law in 2002.

The most recent statewide race overturned by a recount was in 2008 in Minnesota. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman led Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes in the initial count, out of more than 2.9 million ballots cast. After a hand recount, Franken won by 225 votes, a shift of 0.02 percentage points, or two one-hundredths of a percentage point.

Among statewide recounts since 2000, the average change in the winning margin was 0.03 percentage points.

The biggest shift was 0.11 percentage points in a relatively low turnout race for Vermont auditor in 2006. Incumbent Republican Randy Brock initially led Democrat Thomas Salmon by 137 votes, but a recount flipped the race and Salmon won by 102 votes.

The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if the AP determines the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

In Washington's public lands primary, which ultimately was decided by 49 votes, the AP waited until after the recount to declare the winner because the margin was so close.

They happen in primaries, too

This year, the Washington state primary for commissioner of public lands went to a recount after the initial tally had Democrat Dave Upthegrove leading Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson by 51 votes, out of more than 1.9 million votes counted, as they vied for second place.

After the recount, Upthegrove's lead shrank by just two votes. In Washington's primary system, the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of their political party.

There are even more recounts in down-ballot races that are sometimes decided by a handful of votes. But even in these lower turnout elections, recounts rarely change the winners.

"Recounts are shifting a very small number of votes," said Deb Otis, director of research and policy at FairVote.

Variety of laws

States have a wide variety of laws on when and how recounts are conducted. Many have automatic recounts if the difference between the top two candidates is within a certain margin; the most common is 0.5 percentage points. Some states allow candidates to request recounts but require that they pay for them — unless the winner changes.

Alaska, Montana, South Dakota and Texas mandate recounts only if there is an exact tie, though candidates can request a recount. South Carolina has automatic recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1% or less of the total votes cast in the race.

Statewide recounts almost always change the results by a few votes.

Patrick said that's usually because of human error — either by an election worker or by voters. For example, paper ballots are often rejected because voters didn't fill them out correctly, but might later be counted after a review.

Paper ballots usually require voters to fill in little bubbles next to their chosen candidate. Tabulation machines look for a mark on a very specific area of the ballot, Patrick said. If voters indicate their preference in some other way, like circling their chosen candidate, the machines won't count the vote.

In some states, bipartisan panels review rejected ballots to try to determine voter intent. Some states do reviews whether there is a recount or not. Other states only do them if there is a recount. Still others never do reviews.

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