Arizona’s primary election is just about two months away and as Republicans hold one-seat majorities in each legislative chamber, some key primary races could be a factor of which party will control the legislature in 2025.
As Arizona’s primary election nears, a few races will be key to which party will control the Legislature in 2025.
With legislative control coming down to just a few competitive districts in the state, some consultants say the majority party could be determined by which candidates win their primary races in some key districts.
Paul Bentz, the senior vice president of Research and Strategy at Highground Consulting, said one district where the Republican primary candidates could determine the general election results is Legislative District 16, which covers Pinal County, Pima County and a small part of Maricopa County.
“It’s a Republican leaning district that I think will get redder over time, but if they choose in a crowded primary that generally benefits the most MAGA-leaning Republican, that could create a really interesting matchup for the general election,” Bentz said.
Four candidates are running in the state House LD16 Republican primary, including incumbent Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande. Martinez and her running mate, Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, have endorsed Republican Chris Lopez in the race.
The two other candidates are Gabriela Mercer and Rob Hudelson, who are running on the same ticket. Hudelson is a Baptist Church pastor who lost to Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande, in the 2022 general election.
“You would think if it was a rematch (between Seaman and Hudelson) that it certainly would make it a little more advantageous to the incumbent. Seaman won in a midterm which generally benefits Republicans. In a general election of a presidential year, we would anticipate the margins would be more favorable towards Democrats,” Bentz said. “It certainly seems like Republicans are trying to line up a good slate of candidates there to win that seat back.”
LD16 is one of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s highly competitive districts but leans Republican with a 3.6% vote spread. Bentz noted it was the only district in the state where both U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D- Ariz., and Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake won in the district during the 2022 general election.
Another district that could see a similar scenario is LD17, which features portions of Pima County and Pinal County. It leans Republican by about 8% and is outside of the redistricting commission’s competitive range, but Democrats are heavily targeting the district.
Sen. Justine Wadsack, R-Tucson, won the 2022 election by just over 3,000 votes, which was about 2.4% of votes cast in the race. Rep. Cory McGarr, R-Tucson, also finished ahead of Democrat Dana Allmond by just under 1%. Democrats ran two candidates in the House race in 2022.
For the 2024 election, Democrats are running a single candidate in the district with only one candidate running for election in the House.
GOP consultant Barrett Marson said Wadsack’s primary race against former Republican Sen. Vince Leach is one that he thinks could play a factor in control of the legislature.
“I do think it matters,” Marson wrote in a text. “Leach doesn’t have the baggage Wadsack does. For sure.”
Wadsack’s tenure at the legislature has been controversial and started with her turning her back on newly-elected Gov. Katie Hobbs during her 2023 State of the State address. The first-term senator has also run bills aimed at banning drag shows and forcing cities from allowing homeless encampments to exist while arresting any person at an encampment engaged in criminal activity.
Wadsack already beat Leach by more than 2,000 votes or more than 5% of votes in the 2022 Republican primary election.
Mark Kelly and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes also both won in LD17 with nearly 53% of the vote. Both ran against Republican candidates Blake Masters and Mark Finchem, respectively.
“Right now, I see it as likely a Republican keep,” Bentz said of LD17.
Abortion is expected to be one of the primary issues that voters consider during the election and the issue has already split Republicans in some competitive districts from the majority caucus opinion on the matter.
Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, was one of five Republicans across both chambers that voted to pass House Bill 2677, which will repeal the state’s 1864 abortion ban.
Bolick faces Republican Josh Barnett in the LD2 Senate primary race, who has criticized her for her vote on HB2677. Either Bolick or Barnett will go on to run against Rep. Judy Schwiebert, D-Phoenix, the only Democratic candidate running for Senate in the district that leans Republican by about 3.8%.
Republican activist Christian Lamar posted a video to X of a physical altercation between Republican precinct committeemen during a May 20 Republican committee meeting. The altercation mirrors primary races like Barnett and Bolick’s of Republican dissent between MAGA and “RINO” candidates.
Democrats are attempting to highlight that conflict in several of the competitive district races.
“LD2 is the purplest district in the state, and we know the only way we’re going to win is if we unify the community,” LD2 Chair Meg Patel said in a statement of the Republican precinct altercation. “We believe in unity over division. This is core to our strategy.”
But Democrats have some controversial candidates too.
Former state Rep. Leezah Sun is challenging Sen. Eva Diaz in the LD22 state Senate primary. Sun resigned from the House in January after the House Ethics Committee determined she violated House rules and threatened a City of Tolleson lobbyist.
LD22 leans in favor of Democrats. Bentz said he expects Diaz to win the primary but a victory for Sun could make the district more competitive because of her divisiveness.
“It could lead to a one-cycle pick up (for Republicans),” Bentz said.
Republicans are also trying to protect a seat they gained in LD23 with Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma. Pena’s victory in 2022 by about 4% over Democrat Jesus Lugo Jr. was unexpected by many in a district with a vote spread that favors Democrats by nearly 17%.
Pena is the single-shot candidate for Republicans in the 2024 state House election. The Democratic primary features three candidates including incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Yuma, Matias Rosales and James Holmes.
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