Hill Dems believe this VP contender would help address Harris’ biggest weakness

A growing number of House Democrats are telling Kamala Harris that she should pick Sen. Mark Kell y as her vice president, believing he would offset her biggest current weakness: the border.

Kelly — a former Navy pivot, astronaut and now a senator from Arizona — has pushed the Biden administration to take a tougher position on border security and aligned more closely with other border-state Democrats, some of whom have either withheld endorsements for Harris’ presidential bid or openly condemned her handling of the border.

Three such Democrats — Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.) — are all publicly pushing for Kelly. Shortly after voting for a bill that denounced Harris’ handling of the border, Cuellar said Kelly was Harris’ best potential pick for a no. 2, saying he “knows the border well.”

“He would add a lot of value,” Gonzalez echoed, gushing about Kelly’s military background and his clear grasp of border issues.

Kelly, along with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, are Hill Democrats’ two top picks to join Harris on the ticket, according to interviews with 30 Democratic lawmakers and senior aides. They both have won multiple elections in swing states, and lawmakers believe they have the most to offer in helping the party beat Donald Trump. Still, while there’s a sense that Shapiro would bring executive experience to the ticket that Harris lacks, others — including in Harris’ own orbit — think Kelly would be critical to addressing Harris’ weakness on immigration.

Hailing from a battleground and border state, Kelly backs improved security and voted in favor of the Senate’s bipartisan border deal earlier this year. Five days before President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy, Kelly was in Mexico City meeting with that nation’s president and pushed him on security and management of their shared border. Correa, who had joined Kelly on the trip, recalled thinking of the Arizona senator: “Wow, man, this guy knows what he’s talking about.”

Correa is one of the few Hill Democrats who has not formally thrown his support behind Harris. Another is Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who faces perhaps the toughest reelection of any sitting senator this fall.

Tester, for his part, was into the prospect: “I like Mark Kelly.”

Still, there are lingering concerns about the Arizonan. Privately, some fellow Democrats questioned his ability to connect with voters on the ground or command attention on the stump, noting that he’s never been considered among the top tier of Democratic orators. Some progressives aren’t his biggest fans. And then there are anxieties about opening a purple-state Senate seat two years from now.

“Yes, it's a concern. … He'd be a great candidate, but we’d have a tough time with his seat,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). “But I think all of us understand that first, last and always — what's going to help us win the presidency? That's what we have to do. And that's more important than any Senate or House seat.”

Harris will make her pick regardless of the Capitol’s fantasy-football-style chatter on the subject. Still, that private lobbying for preferred candidates — whether it’s Kelly, Shapiro or a third name that’s frequently mentioned to Harris’ team, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — underscores the competing pressures from the party’s various geographic and ideological factions to pick a running mate. Further complicating matters, it’s all on an incredibly accelerated timeline, since Harris is expected to choose someone in the next week and a half rather than the typical months candidates have to vet a running mate.

In the Senate, where Kelly is closing out his fourth year, a group of his colleagues have been pushing for him as veep even before Biden officially stepped aside. Others cited Kelly’s wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), as another asset for a national campaign.

Still, Democrats are nervous about filling his current seat — if Kelly left the Senate, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would appoint a replacement who would serve until a special election in 2026 — but don’t see that as a reason to keep him off the ticket.

Kelly and fellow Senate Democrats expressed confidence they’d be able to hold his seat in a special election if it came to that. “We’re good at Senate races,” he quipped, noting his state has had one each cycle since 2016 due to special elections, with Democrats winning the last three races.

With such a high-stakes, abbreviated timeline, many Democrats have been careful not to publicly discredit one or more of Harris’ possible picks. Privately, progressives dislike many of the positions held by both Kelly and Shapiro — citing Kelly’s stances on labor and Shapiro’s on the Israeli-Hamas war — and are instead pushing Walz. They argue the Minnesotan, who is also a former House member, speaks well to rural America while maintaining a progressive record in a purple-ish state.

The Congressional Progressive Caucus, as a bloc, is not backing one candidate or another. But its chair, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), took a barely-veiled shot at Kelly on Thursday that shows his selection could spur some discontent on the left.

“I just don't see how she can put somebody in who does not have a strong pro-labor record,” Jayapal said, noting she prefers Walz.

Some progressives had been concerned that Kelly was not a co-sponsor of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, a high-priority piece of legislation for labor leaders. The senator announced he would support this bill this month. And Kelly has garnered some support from labor leaders in his state.

Despite those concerns, Kelly has shot up the ranks of vice presidential contenders on the strength of both his personal and strategic appeal to Harris and her team, two people familiar with the discussions said. Perhaps most importantly, Harris has had positive interactions with Kelly, said one of those people — a weighty factor in a truncated and high-stakes campaign that can’t afford to suffer from mistrust or infighting.

Lauren Hitt, a spokesperson for the Harris campaign, declined to comment on any specific vice presidential candidates, saying only that the search process was underway. She denied that the field had narrowed in recent days.

Still, Kelly’s sudden strength has puzzled some Democrats across the party, especially relative to Shapiro or North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who are seen on paper as more natural fits given Harris’ potential paths to victory. Privately, some worry that Kelly on the ticket won’t even help Harris win Arizona.

Though Kelly has a compelling backstory — including his career as an astronaut and his upbringing by two New Jersey cops — and has proven he can win a tough election, his short time in the Senate has been lower key and devoid of the kind of signature moment that has launched other vice presidential contenders into the national political consciousness. One Democratic operative who’s interacted with Kelly described him as overly technical, expressing doubt about how his style would translate in a race where Democrats’ chances rely on driving voter enthusiasm and turnout.

“He’s a nice guy. But he doesn’t connect,” said the operative, granted anonymity to share his candid observations.

Harris is down just two points to Trump in Pennsylvania, compared with a seven-point deficit in Arizona, according to new Emerson College polling released Thursday. And, unlike Arizona, Pennsylvania is viewed as a must-win — and a state where she may need help holding onto the working class independents who liked Biden but may be newly skeptical of Harris.

Cooper is also liked among Hill Democrats. The North Carolina governor represents a state that Biden had hoped to flip blue this cycle. At 67 years old and term-limited at the end of this year, he is also not seen as a future presidential contender who Harris would have to worry about hijacking the spotlight or harboring higher ambitions of his own.

“You’re always looking for some kind of balance, whether it's geographic or demographic or stylistic,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii.) “This is the first presidential decision that she's got.”