The most contested legislative primaries in Arizona since 2010

Welcome to the Monday, July 29, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. The most contested legislative primaries in Arizona since 2010
2. Washington voters to decide on initiative that would prohibit restrictions on natural gas access
3. Incumbent Matt Gaetz and Aaron Dimmock are running in the Republican primary for Florida’s 1st Congressional District on Aug. 20

The most contested legislative primaries in Arizona since 2010

Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Arizona. The state is holding primaries for congressional, state executive, state legislative, and municipal offices on July 30.

Why it matters at the national level

In the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently have a majority. There are 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents. Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party, and two others count towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four.

In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Arizona’s House delegation includes three Democrats and six Republicans. We’re following three Arizona U.S. House primaries as battleground primaries:

• Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)
• Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Democratic primary)
• Arizona’s 8th Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)

Primary elections

U.S. Senate

This seat is open because incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is not running for re-election. Three candidates—Kari Lake (R), Mark Lamb (R), and Elizabeth Reye (R)—are running in the Republican primary. Dustin Williams (R) is also running in the Republican primary as a write-in candidate. The Democratic primary is uncontested, and the nominee is Ruben Gallego (D).

U.S. House

Thirty-eight candidates—16 Democrats and 22 Republicans—are running for Arizona’s nine U.S. House districts. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 34.6 candidates ran in each election year.

• The 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts are open this year. Gallego (D-03) is running for the U.S. Senate, and Debbie Lesko (R-08) is running for ​​the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
• Nine candidates—six Democrats and three Republicans—are running for the 1st Congressional District, the most candidates running for a district in Arizona this year.
• Eight primaries—two Democratic and six Republican—are contested this year. That’s the fewest since 2014 when five primaries were contested.

• Three incumbents—all Republicans—are in contested primaries this year.

State Executive Offices

Three of the five seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission are up for election this year. The commission regulates non-municipal utility companies, including energy, heat, trash, water, and communications firms. It also oversees the incorporation of businesses, securities regulation, and railroad/pipeline safety.

State Legislature

All 90 seats in the Arizona State Legislature—30 in the Senate and 60 in the House—are up for election this year. Arizona is one of 10 states with a divided government. The state was a Republican trifecta from 2009 until 2023 when Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) assumed office. Republicans currently have a 16-14 majority in the Senate and a 31-28 majority, with one vacancy, in the House.

Arizona currently has one of the narrowest legislative margins in the country. It is one of four states with a Senate with a two-seat margin between the two major parties. That’s the second-narrowest margin behind Minnesota, which is currently split evenly. Arizona has the third-narrowest margin in terms of its House. Michigan and Virginia have a two-seat margin in their respective Houses, and Pennsylvania has a one-seat margin. With Arizona’s Legislature among the most competitive in the country, AXIOS Phoenix‘s Jeremy Duda named the four Republican primaries to watch:

• In the Arizona Senate District 1 Republican Primary, incumbent Sen. Ken Bennett faces two primary challengers. According to Duda, Bennett has “broken with his GOP colleagues on several notable occasions, costing Republicans their crucial 16th vote.”
• In the Arizona Senate District 17 Republican Primary, incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack, who defeated then-incumbent Sen. Vince Leach in 2022 51.2%-48.8%, will face Leach again since he is running to return to the Senate.
• In the Arizona House District 7 Republican Primary, incumbent Rep. David Marshall will face five challengers, including two former Arizona state representatives.
• In the Arizona Senate District 7 Republican Primary, incumbent Sen. Wendy Rogers is running against State Rep. David Cook. According to Duda, Cook is a moderate Republican, while Rogers has made a national name for herself as a supporter of former President Donald Trump (R).

Here are some other highlights about this year’s legislative races:

• One hundred eighty-seven candidates—87 Democrats and 100 Republicans—filed to run.
• Twenty-nine primaries—12 Democratic and 17 Republican—are contested this year.
• Twenty-nine incumbents—14 Democrats and 15 Republicans—are in contested primaries, the most since 2010.
• Twenty seats are open, meaning no incumbents are running. Six incumbents—two senators and four representatives—are term-limited. Arizona is one of 16 states that limit state legislators’ terms in office.

Municipal government

Five Arizona cities within our coverage scope will hold primaries for mayor. They are Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, and Scottsdale.

Washington voters to decide on initiative that would prohibit restrictions on natural gas access

Washington will have its first Initiative to the People since 2018.

The Washington Secretary of State’s office certified that sponsors of Washington Initiative 2066 submitted the required 324,516 valid signatures.

The initiative would repeal changes to House Bill 1589, which the Legislature approved in March 2024. The law sets a 2027 deadline for utilities to submit plans to the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC), showing how much it would cost to electrify the state’s power grid. The UTC creates plans for regulations on electric and natural gas consumption consistent with the state’s greenhouse gas emissions goals.

The initiative’s primary sponsor is the Building Industry Association of Washington’s (BIAW) Executive Vice President Greg Lane. Lane said, “It is very simple. If you have natural gas, this protects you to be able to keep natural gas in your home or your business. And it protects the freedom of every single Washingtonian to have the clean energy of their choice.”

Other supporters of the initiative include the Washington Hospitality Association, Washington Realtors, and Associated General Contractors.

Let’s Go Washington, a political action committee that collected signatures for three initiatives already on the November ballot, also helped gather signatures for this initiative.

In opposing the initiative, Climate and Clean Energy Director for Washington Conservation Action Caitlin Krenn said, “I-2066 would take away communities’ choice, jeopardize rebate programs that help families and small business owners afford building upgrades, repeal common-sense measures that make homes and workplaces more energy efficient and healthy, and erode clean air protections.”

Puget Sound Energy, the state’s largest utility with more than 1.2 million electric customers and 900,000 natural gas customers, said it is “deeply concerned about the misinformation that continues to be spread about natural gas” and that “there is no ban on natural gas. PSE has an obligation to serve any customer who wants natural gas.”

In 2023, New York became the first state to enact a bill restricting natural gas. The bill required new buildings to be constructed with only electric hookups for appliances and utilities beginning in 2025. For buildings with less than seven stories, the requirement was set to be effective in 2026, and for taller buildings, it would be effective in 2029.

To learn more about the three other statewide ballot measures on the November ballot, click here.

Incumbent Matt Gaetz and Aaron Dimmock are running in the Republican primary for Florida’s 1st Congressional District on Aug. 20

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 20 Republican primary for Florida’s 1st Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) and Aaron Dimmock (R).

In October 2023, Gaetz filed a motion to remove Kevin McCarthy (R) as Speaker of the House, which ultimately became the first successful motion to remove a House speaker in U.S. history. Gaetz was one of eight Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy.

In February 2024, Politico called Gaetz the biggest target in McCarthy allies’ campaign to recruit primary challengers to run against the eight House Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy. In July 2024, The New York Times reported that a group connected to a top McCarthy ally had released a television ad attacking Gaetz. McCarthy endorsed Dimmock, while former President Donald Trump endorsed Gaetz.

Gaetz’s experience and platform

Gaetz is a former lawyer who was first elected to Congress in 2016. In the 2022 general election, Gaetz defeated Rebekah Jones (D) 67.9%-32.1%. He also represented District 4 in the Florida House of Representatives from 2010 to 2016.

Gaetz said he supports America First policies, a term often associated with Trump and his platform. According to his official website, Gaetz’s priorities include national security, veterans’ affairs, and adherence to constitutional principles.

Dimmock’s experience and platform

Dimmock served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and retired as a Commander. After retiring from the military, he worked as a leadership and character development facilitator and a business consultant.

Dimmock said he is pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, and pro-Trump. In an interview with Fox News, Dimmock said he was running because “The voters in District 1 deserve an alternative and I can bring that alternative, not just with my military service all around the globe but as a person of honor, integrity, and character.”

Campaign finance

As of June 30, Gaetz had raised $5,421,060, while Dimmock had raised $295,744.

• The primary election is August 20.