Trump’s dual endorsement, Kari Lake’s rise and more storylines to watch in Arizona’s primary elections

TUCSON, Arizona — Arizona Republicans are on track to nominate their unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial nominee who vehemently denied the results of that election for the state’s high-stakes Senate seat. But that’s not even where most of the drama is happening in the swing state’s primaries on Tuesday.

Kari Lake, who is backed by national Republicans as they look to flip the open Senate seat, is the heavy favorite in her primary. And her Democratic opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego, is running uncontested, taking much of the intraparty intrigue out of what could be one of the most competitive Senate elections this year.

Instead, some of the most contentious races in the Grand Canyon State are happening further down the ballot. In the GOP primary for the ruby red 8th District, an eleventh-hour endorsement from former President Donald Trump added another layer to an already bitter contest. The safe blue Phoenix-based seat being vacated by Gallego has attracted millions of dollars in outside spending. And a half-dozen Democrats are scrambling to take on longtime Republican Rep. David Schweikert in a district that President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.

Here are the races to watch on Tuesday:

— AZ-Sen: Lake is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, seen as her most serious competition, and another little-known candidate. Her competitors have failed to gain traction in the primary against the Trump ally, who has a strong standing among the MAGA base but is working to try to expand her appeal to the broader electorate.

Democrats are hoping to keep the seat after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the party to become an independent and chose not to run for reelection — which could have scrambled the general election for both parties.

In light of a lack of serious competition on either side, campaigning in the lead-up to the primary has already shifted to the general election. Gallego has a substantial cash advantage over Lake: His campaign coffers are close to four times as large as hers as of early July, and from the beginning of the year through Tuesday, he has spent more than $15 million on advertising compared with $2 million from Lake and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which endorsed her, according to ad tracker AdImpact.

— AZ-01: Democrats have their sights set on Schweikert, who narrowly eked out a win in the midterms by less than 1 point. Biden won this battleground by around 2 points in 2020.

The busy field of Democrats looking to unseat Schweikert includes former Arizona Democratic Party Chair Andrei Cherny; former state Rep. Amish Shah; former journalist Marlene Galán-Woods; finance executive Conor O’Callaghan; orthodontist Andrew Horne; and former American Red Cross regional CEO Kurt Kroemer.

There isn’t much public polling in this race, though Cherny, O’Callaghan (thanks to a hefty personal loan) and Galán-Woods have led the field in fundraising. The Democrats have leaned heavily on vows to protect abortion rights in their messaging — especially in light of the state Supreme Court upholding the state’s near-total abortion ban earlier this year, which was later repealed . Galán-Woods, the only woman in the race, has especially seized on that, and has emphasized her endorsements from EMILYs List and state Attorney General Kris Mayes. But she’s also faced attacks over being a registered Republican until 2018 .

— AZ-02: Rep. Eli Crane was one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy. But the former speaker’s revenge tour doesn’t seem to be making a stop in Arizona.

Crane faces a primary challenge from Jack Smith, a former Yavapai County supervisor. Crane has sought to tie Smith to McCarthy, which the challenger has denied . McCarthy’s affiliated groups have largely stayed out of the race, with the exception of an aligned nonprofit running a spot hitting Crane on immigration through the end of last month. Crane has far outpaced Smith in fundraising, a sign of Smith’s lack of momentum. Another McCarthy detractor — Rep. Andy Biggs in AZ-05 — didn’t even face a primary challenge.

— AZ-03: The Democratic primary to succeed Gallego has garnered plenty of national attention, with former Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari and former state Sen. Raquel Terán emerging as the front-runners. The winner of the primary will be on a clear path to victory, given the Democratic lean of the seat.

Protect Progress, a pro-crypto group that has spent in support of Democratic candidates nationally, has dropped more than $1 million backing Ansari. Terán’s campaign has taken issue with that spending, pointing to the group’s prominent Republican donors . Ansari has also been boosted by pro-Israel DMFI PAC and Mainstream Democrats, a super PAC backed in part by LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman that sought to tie Terán to Republicans.

Terán, meanwhile, has touted her progressive accolades, including support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Planned Parenthood Action, the Working Families Party and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ political arm is backing Terán, who would be the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress. She’s also backed by Sen. Mark Kelly, one of the possible running mates for Vice President Kamala Harris.

— AZ-06: Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democrat Kirsten Engel are poised for a rematch after Engel lost to Ciscomani by around 1 point in the midterms. Engel is uncontested in the Democratic primary, though Ciscomani faces a nominal challenge from the right.

The general election for the 6th District is expected to be one of the most competitive House seats this year. Ciscomani is one of a handful of Republicans currently representing a seat that Biden won (which he did by less than 1 point) in 2020.

— AZ-08: Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh — the failed 2022 Republican Senate and state attorney general candidates, respectively — have been attacking each other for months in the bitter primary for this ruby red seat to replace retiring Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko.

Masters and his allies have taken shots at Hamadeh by strongly implying he is Muslim . (Hamadeh has said he does not identify with any particular faith .) Masters and his supporters also ran ads featuring Trump’s endorsement two years ago in the Senate race, which drew the ire of Hamadeh, whom Trump endorsed for this race back in December .

But the weekend before the election, Trump issued a rare double endorsement for both Masters and Hamadeh — potentially neutralizing Hamadeh’s perceived leg up in the primary, though many votes had already been cast by that point.

A handful of other candidates are also running, including state House Speaker Ben Toma, who has the backing of outside groups like Americans for Prosperity Action, and former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned from Congress after female staffers said he approached them about being a surrogate for him and his wife, is on the ballot as well. It’s possible that another candidate can find an opening as Masters and Hamadeh attack each other.

— Arizona state Legislature: The state legislative races are setting up to be among the most tense this cycle, with Democrats mounting an aggressive campaign to flip both chambers and Republicans dealing with sparring between the moderate and MAGA wings. Republicans hold a slim majority in both the state House and Senate.

In Arizona, 30 legislative districts are each represented by one state senator and two state representatives. And among the most contested is the 17th District, an upper-middle-class suburban neighborhood in Tucson that is represented by Republicans but Democrats have made inroads in recent years. The GOP state Senate primary there is a close race between an incumbent and former incumbent — and it’s gotten ugly.

State Sen. Justine Wadsack is defending her seat against Vince Leach, an incumbent whom she beat in 2022. Leach was a more traditional Republican who veered right on social issues toward the end of his tenure by pushing bills to ban children from attending drag shows. Wadsack, meanwhile, is a member of the Freedom Caucus and behind bills attempting to keep sexually explicit material out of school libraries.

On the Democratic side, two progressives are trying to oust a conservative Democrat, state Rep. Lydia Hernandez, in LD 24, a district with the highest concentration of Latino and Hispanic voters. Hernandez is on the outs with many Democrats after siding with Republicans on some issues like abortion and her support of former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey. She filed an ethics complaint against several fellow members of the Latino Caucus, accusing them of falsely imprisoning her and holding her hostage at a meeting over political differences. The state House Ethics Committee later dropped the complaint .

Madison Fernandez reported from New York. Liz Crampton reported from Tucson.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro's Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro .