Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego to face off in Arizona Senate race

One of the biggest Senate races of the year is now set: MAGA star Kari Lake will face off against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona as the GOP tries to claw back power in a state that has become a high-stakes battleground.

Gallego and Lake easily clinched their respective parties’ nominations Tuesday for the Senate seat, which is open after independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema chose not to run for reelection. Gallego was uncontested in his primary, and Lake fended off two candidates, including Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, her closest competition.

The general election has already effectively been underway for months.

Gallego has been working to introduce himself to the statewide electorate after representing the Phoenix area in the House for a decade. Gallego had already dropped more than $15 million on advertisements in the lead-up to the primary, with an additional $18 million booked through November, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Gallego’s ads have primarily been biographical, focusing on his story of growing up in a single-parent immigrant household and becoming a Marine.

Lake has taken a very different approach.

On the airwaves, she has gone aggressively after Gallego on immigration , typically seen as a weak spot for Democrats. (Gallego has sought to neutralize those attacks by proactively messaging on his work on the Southern border, a rarity for Democrats.) Most of her ad spending ahead of the primary — $2 million — has been in coordination with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which endorsed her, and the campaign has $6 million booked in future reservations.

Lake benefits from statewide name ID from her unsuccessful run in 2022 for governor. In that race, the former news anchor lost by less than 1 percentage point to Democratic now-Gov. Katie Hobbs, a result that Lake vehemently — and baselessly — denied long after the election.

Lake is still spreading false claims that the 2020 and 2022 elections were stolen and railing against the “ fake news .” When British journalist Emily Maitlis asked her earlier this month whether she would concede should she lose in November, Lake told her that she thinks Maitlis needs her “ head examined .”

As Lake rose to prominence in 2022, she gained national attention as a close ally of and surrogate for former President Donald Trump — enough to be considered a vice presidential contender at one point. Trump endorsed her in both her gubernatorial and Senate campaigns and took part in a tele-rally for Lake on the eve of Tuesday’s primary.

Republicans have struggled in recent years to nominate Republican candidates in primaries — where MAGA figures have dominated — who are capable of winning a general election. In the midterms, the embrace of weak general election nominees led to smaller-than-expected gains for the GOP in Congress.

This year, the NRSC has had a heavy hand in recruiting candidates and clearing primary fields to elevate those they see as the most electable. The committee’s strategy has worked in their favor so far — with nominal competition in primaries that could have otherwise drained resources ahead of high-stakes general elections. In Arizona, as it became clear that Lake would have no serious primary competition, national Republicans coalesced around her in hopes of bringing her over the finish line come November.

Now Lake is working to expand her appeal to a broader electorate and court establishment Republicans, some of whom are still skeptical of her following the hard-right profile she cultivated for herself just a couple of years ago. (Gallego, who has a progressive record that Republicans have sought to highlight, has also looked to cater to the center .)

With fewer than 100 days to go until Election Day, there are clear signs Lake still has plenty of work to do.

Lake proved to be a strong fundraiser in the aftermath of the 2022 election, raising millions as she dragged out unsuccessful litigation for months, claiming that the race was rigged against her. But now, she’s lagging behind Gallego.

As of early July, Gallego had almost four times as much in his coffers compared with Lake, $8.2 million to $2.1 million. In the first 10 days of July, he raised more than $1 million, according to the most recent campaign finance reports. Lake brought in $325,000 during that period. Gallego also outraised her in the second quarter of this year, $10.5 million to $4.3 million.

And messaging from allies of Lamb, who lost to Lake in the primary, could be a warning: “Donald Trump needs a workhorse in the Senate, not a show horse,” a spot from conservative group American Encore running in the lead-up to the primary said.

Gallego, a former state legislator, has been running for the Senate seat since early last year , when Sinema’s candidacy was still a question hovering over the race. If elected, Gallego would be Arizona’s first Latino senator.

Republicans have struggled statewide in Arizona in recent years. In 2022, Republican Blake Masters lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly by 5 points. Democrats also flipped the Senate seat in 2020 during a special election, and now-President Joe Biden narrowly clinched the state then, too.

The state is poised to again play a key role, both in the presidential election and determining control of the Senate. And it could take on an even higher-profile role should Vice President Kamala Harris choose Kelly as her running mate.