Northern Arizona weather update: Thunderstorms are forecasted Tuesday through Thursday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Tuesday, 14 May 2024, the Mogollon Rim had very isolated thunderstorms between the Flagstaff and Winslow areas mixed with rain shower activity from Southern Apache County, Southern Navajo, and Southern Coconino Counties. This convective activity will increase going into Wednesday afternoon and tapering off on Thursday.

Model Thunderstorm potential for Wednesday afternoon 15 May 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

A cut-off low will eject over Arizona in the next two days, providing convective conditions to move through the upstate. This system adds lift and positive vorticity advection, and, coupled with orographic lifting and surface heating, it will lead to thunderstorms over the region. The thunderstorms will be predominately in the afternoon to early evening hours. The stability is moderate, with the Lifted Index between -3 and -5, and CAPE values are about 800 and 1,200. Severe weather is unlikely, but the potential for convective gusts of up to 50 mph and small hail is possible with these storms.

The bulk of these storms will initiate over Southern Apache, Navajo, Coconino, and Yavapai Counties. This convective activity will spread northward into the late afternoon and evening hours, and most activity will be on Wednesday with this ejecting low. Again, chances for severe weather will be very limited, and winds and small hail are the most likely concern for this week.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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