Arizona heatwave to precede the rain showers and thunderstorms over the weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Arizona will experience a heatwave with near-record temperatures this week, but isolated rain showers and thunderstorms by the weekend are possible to provide some relief for a few areas.

300 mb level longwave ridge patternPhoto byWindy.com

This week, 3-8 June 2024, Arizona will be first impacted by a significant longwave wave ridge that will build in and peak on Thursday, bringing the hottest temperatures of the week. Phoenix can expect a high temperature on Thursday, 6 Jun 2024, of 109 F, about two degrees shy of the record 111 F for that day. So, it is very close to record temperatures for the metro. Tucson can expect 106 F, Yuma 105 F, and up on the Mogollon Rim, the temperatures will be cooler but still on the high side. For Flagstaff, expect a high on Thursday of 88 F, Payson 93 F, and Show Low 92 F.

500 mb cut-off low on Friday 7 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

A cut-off low will develop during the week, and now the models agree that it will eject out over Arizona on Friday into Saturday, 7-8 June 2024. This mid-level southerly flow should advect some moisture into the state for this upcoming weekend and provide some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Virga or rain not reaching the ground is also possible in desert regions. Currently, the model precipitation amounts are meager, but the bulk of the precipitation will likely be on the Mogollon Rim and Northern Arizona. However, low-lying areas may get some of this moisture. This is not tropical or monsoon-related but rather a mid-latitude low.

This is an initial forecast for this end-of-week rain potential. As more details come from the higher-resolution convective models, there will be further updates as this system gets closer to moving out over the state. So, continue to watch for more Arizona Weatherman updates.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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