Future Tropical Storm Alberto to impact the upcoming Arizona monsoon pattern

According to the Arizona Weatherman, future Tropical Storm Alberto will impact Arizona with an influx of moisture after 20 June 2024. According to the National Hurricane Center, the forecasters are projecting that in the next 24 hours, Tropical Storm Alberto will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico, moving northward and significantly impacting Northern Mexico and Texas with heavy rain in the next few days. Additionally, some of this moisture will make its way through New Mexico and Mexico to impact Arizona.

NHC forecast for the upcoming tropical cyclonePhoto byNational Hurricane Center

The image below indicates that the monsoon pattern will begin to set up with the high-pressure center over the low pressure by 21 Jun 2024, and a southeasterly low-level flow will impact eastern Arizona. Tropical moisture will come in, as indicated by the dew points on the model data, in the 55-60 F range. This monsoon pattern is consistent through the end of the month.

Model dew point data and pressure contours for Arizona.Photo byWindy.com

The below image indicates the model data total quantitative precipitation forecasted to the 30^th of June. It does not mean that is exactly the amount of rain for Arizona, but it does provide a good indication of rain trends and likely areas to get more rain and thunderstorms as the monsoon pattern kicks off. Again, climatologically, the state's southeastern section tends to favor early thunderstorms from the monsoon. The model data does indicate this trend for Cochise, Santa Cruz, Eastern Pima, Graham, Greenlee, and Southern Apache Counties. Tucson may get .25” to half an inch, Phoenix less than .10” of an inch, and Flagstaff .40” to .75” of an inch by the end of the month. Also, western Arizona is not looking to get much rain through the end of the month.

Model data indicating Arizona Total Quantative Precipitation through 30 Jun 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

This is just the beginning of the imminent Arizona monsoon pattern. The Arizona Weatherman will continue to watch and provide forecast updates as needed. Have a great day!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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