Arizona monsoon thunderstorms to ramp up in area coverage and intensity over the weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, for Saturday, 13 Jul 2024, there will be more general isolated thunderstorms. On Sunday, 14 Jul 2024, expect an increase in the amount and intensity of monsoon thunderstorm impacts for the state.

Saturday, 13 Jul 2024, model thunderstorm coveragePhoto byWindy.com

Over the course of this weekend, the upper-level high will shift, and lower-level moisture will increase as it is fed into Arizona from the Gulf of California. On Saturday, expect isolated thunderstorms to impact the northwestern section of the state in southern Coconino, Yavapai, and Mojave Counties. Additionally, to the south, Santa Cruz and Pima Counties will have some isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday, 14 Jul 2024, model thunderstorms coveragePhoto byPivotal Weather

On Sunday, expect more coverage and intensity for the state. The stability indices will be more on the unstable side, with CAPE values around 2,500 to 3,000; LI values around -6 to -7, and DCAPE in the 1,500 range. Also, several positive hail indicators were found on the skew-t data. Therefore, expect the potential for severe parameters such as winds greater than 60 mph, larger than 1-inch hail, and localized flooding. The best chances for this activity will be in Gila, Pinal, Graham, Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties. There will be two active areas, one to the south with Santa Cruz and Pima Counties, and stronger late afternoon thunderstorms moving off the Rim in Gila County heading south. Also, expect some thunderstorms to kick up in the Catalina mountains near Tucson on Sunday as well.

Due to the forecasted indices, I expect the potential for severe thunderstorms in these outlined areas from 1 pm to 8 pm. Please stay advised of your local radar data and NWS warnings, and stay safe. Anticipating the worst of these storms in the late afternoon into early evening.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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