Arizona Weather Forecast: More active thunderstorms are expected on Thursday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Wednesday and Thursday, July 17-18, 2024, more isolated to scattered thunderstorms will impact Arizona. The Mogollon Rim and, secondarily, the southeast section of the state will be the most active in the next two days.

Model data 850 mb low-level tropical moisture Thursday afternoon.Photo byWindy.com

On Wednesday after 12 pm, expect the Rim to fire up and impact northern Greenlee, Apache, Navajo, Gila, Yavapai, Coconino, and Mohave Counties. Then, after 3 pm, expect some isolated thunderstorms to kick off in Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, and possibly Eastern Pima in the early evening hours. There is a chance of isolated severe potential, most likely winds >60 mph and one inch or less hail in the afternoon hours. The severe warnings should be isolated but possible.

On Thursday, expect a similar pattern with an earlier 12 p.m. start of the convective activity for the Mogollon Rim and then an expansion in coverage for southeastern Arizona. The high-resolution convective model data indicate that coverage for southern Arizona will increase going into Thursday afternoon and early evening hours. Expect more thunderstorms for Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Eastern Pima for the overall impacts as the 850 mb low-level tropical moisture is fed in from the Gulf of California. There will be an increased chance for severe parameters, especially wind gusts greater than 60 mph based on the skew-t data, but up to one inch of hail is also possible with these storms. The steering flow will move the storms from Cochise into Pima County into the late afternoon and evening hours.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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