Intense thunderstorms lash Arizona: Strong winds, large hail, and flash floods expected this weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Friday, Saturday, and even Sunday look like elevated chances for monsoon thunderstorms over the weekend. These storms could bring severe parameters on the higher side, with the potential for strong gusty winds, dust, hail, and localized flooding. It's important to be cautious and prepared.

Model data 500 mb steering flow for thunderstorms on Saturday 20 Jul 2024.Photo byWindy.com

At 300 mb, upper-level ridging will be over the state with difluence and speed divergence impacting the Mogollon Rim and Eastern Arizona over the next few days. Additionally, from 500 mb to 700 mb, the steering flow will move the thunderstorms off the Rim into Graham, Pinal, and Cochise Counties. Additionally, more afternoon thunderstorms will ignite in Southern Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. The stability indices range from moderate to high, with CAPEs in the 1,500 to 2,900 range and LIs in the -5 to -7 range, and no significant capping is occurring. Therefore, expect the severe potential in some of these storms to include winds greater than 60 mph, up to one-inch hail, blowing dust in prone areas, and localized flooding.

For Friday, 19 Jul 2024, expect the thunderstorms to ignite after 12 pm on the Mogollon Rim, including areas of Northern Mohave, Yavapai, Coconino, Gila, Apache, Navajo, and Northern Greenlee Counties. By 2 pm, the thunderstorms will start impacting Graham, Cochise, and Santa Cruz County, and storms will continue to move off of the Rim and interact with the Southern storms in the later afternoon and evening hours. This will lead to more severe impacts from these storms. These storms will have significant outflow boundaries and will kick off more storms. The best chances for severe chances appear to be in the Southern Apache, Northern Greenlee, Graham Counties and also Southern Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. Late afternoon and early evening, expect these storms to move into Pinal and Eastern Pima Counties as well, possibly impacting Tucson with more thunderstorms.

For Saturday, 20 Jul 2024, expect a similar start-up time for the convection on the Rim after 12 pm and then through the afternoon into evening, more thunderstorms firing off through the day. Also, expect the thunderstorms over Gila, Southern Navajo, Southern Apache, and Northern Greenlee Counties to move off of the Rim and move southwestward with the steering flow. They will move into Graham, Cochise, and Pinal Counties. Additionally, more development will ignite in Santa Cruz County. Also, some high-resolution convective models indicate that thunderstorms in Gila and Yavapai Counties may push off the ridge and move toward Phoenix. Will the rain impact the metro? It is more likely wind and dust, but I am not ruling out the possibility of a little rain making it into the city. Severe weather for strong convective gusts with outflow boundaries, dust, larger hail, and localized flooding are likely with these storms. It is looking like a very active weekend coming up with monsoon thunderstorms.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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