Powerful thunderstorms to descend from the Mogollon Rim into Southern Arizona tomorrow

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Wednesday, 24 Jul 2024, there is a switch from western Arizona to more Southeastern and Central parts of the state for thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening hours. This activity does have the potential for severe weather conditions associated with some of these thunderstorms.

Model thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon 24 Jul 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

Expect typical convection to fire up along the Mogollon Rim around 1 p.m., particularly for Gila, Southern Coconino, Yavapai, Northern Graham, and Greenlee Counties. During the afternoon into the evening, these storms will push off the ridge and drop into the lower elevations, especially for Southern Graham, Pinal, Maricopa, Northern Cochise, and Pima Counties. The stability indices indicate a moderate to higher unstable atmosphere for the region. Some of these storms may produce outflow boundaries with higher winds >60 mph, larger hail, blowing dust, and localized flooding.

The main push and steering flow indicate large cells coming off the ridge from Gila and Graham Counties and pushing into Pinal and Pima Counties, including the Tucson area, by the afternoon and going into the evening hours. There may be more than one pulse that moves off of the ridge into the evening. Also, expect this flow to move the storms further into central and western Pima County into the evening hours. Additionally, some of these storms are looking to move off the ridge into Maricopa County and move to the west of Phoenix into the evening hours.

Again, some of these larger storms may produce severe potential. Therefore, be aware of your local radar and NWS warnings, and it is advised not to enter local flooded roads due to the danger it poses to motorists. Be safe!