Arizona monsoon thunderstorms track eastward with strong winds, hail, and flooding

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Friday, 26 July 2024, there is a shift in the upper-level pattern today and a shift in the monsoon thunderstorm pattern to a more eastward projection throughout the day. Expect similar Mogollon Rim initial convection development and then move off the ridge southward in the afternoon and evening hours.

300 mb ridge bisecting Arizona on Friday 26 Jul 2024Photo byWindy.com

The 300 mb ridge pattern has shifted eastward, as depicted in the above image. This shift will allow the Mogollon Rim thunderstorms to drop off the ridge in Eastern Arizona and impact the lower elevation areas in the Southeast area of the state. Expect initial thunderstorm formation around 12 pm on the Rim in Yavapai, Gila, Coconino, Southern Navajo, Southern Apache, and Greenlee Counties. After 3 pm, expect the thunderstorms to drop off the Rim and move southward with the steering flow into Graham, Cochise, East Pima, East Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties into the evening hours. This thunderstorm activity will possibly linger into the later evening hours.

I do not expect the large area coverage or intensity of yesterday’s storms; however, the moderate to higher stability indices do suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the Southeast Arizona area will have severe potential in the later afternoon into evening hours. Winds >60 mph, less than one inch of hail, and localized flooding are possible. The strongest activity is likely in Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Eastern Pima. These storms may impact Willcox, Benson, and Sierra Vista as they pass through during the late afternoon and evening. Tucson is not in the direct path, but the vicinity to the west of the metro is likely as well in the evening hours. As always, stay safe, be aware of the local radar and NWS warnings, and please don’t cross flooded roadways.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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