Future East Pacific hurricanes poised to enhance Arizona's monsoon thunderstorms

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the Eastern Pacific tropical basin will likely have increased activity in the next two weeks due to changing atmospheric conditions making it more likely for two new potential Tropical Storms or even Hurricanes to develop. These potential tropical systems may have an impact fueling some additional tropical moisture in Arizona in the next few weeks.

Model data showing two tropical systems in the East Pacific on Saturday 3 Aug 2024.Photo byWindy.com

I am NOT expecting these systems to move directly up the Gulf of California and directly impact the state however, as they develop in the East Pacific and move northwestward into the Pacific Ocean there will possibly be some influx of tropical moisture as they pass the Gulf of California. This in turn will increase the amount of tropical moisture available for the Arizona monsoon to tap into in the coming days. This is a good turn of events as currently we only have had two named storms so far this season and by 27 Jul 2024, we should have on average at least five by this time in the season. This has been a slow start to the season.

The conditions are becoming more ripe for tropical development for a few reasons. The sea surface temperatures are ranging from a favorable 80 F to 83 F, the windshear has diminished, no significant Saharan dust, and most importantly the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is going to be more favorable between 31 Jul 2024 through 15 August 2024 over the Pacific basin providing upward vertical motion and increasing the likelihood of tropical storm development in the next two weeks.

The modeling data suggest that two potential tropical systems will develop in the East Pacific and likely to reach tropical storm stength and even hurricane strength in the next two weeks. The next two names are Carlotta and Daniel. I will be watching this to develop. Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is looking at a 50% chance of the first one to develop in the next seven days.

The models have the first likely to be named future Tropical Storm Carlotta around Wednesday to Thursday 31 Jul 2024 to 1 Aug 2024. This storm according to the Dvorak Intensity Scale may become a Hurricane by Friday 2 Aug 2024. As this storm develops on Thursday and Friday, it may push up some tropical moisture into Eastern Arizona and enhancing monsoon thunderstorms.

The models have the second tropical system to become future named Tropical Storm Daniel around Sunday 4 Aug 2024 or Monday 5 Aug 2024. According to the pressure estimate and the Dvorak Intensity Scale this storm may also develop into another hurricane as well. The additional tropical moisture may impact Arizona on 6-7 August as this storm develops and moves toward the northwest. Again, I do not expect these storms to make a radical northward push but just bring in some tropical moisture to the state over the next few weeks. This will likely provide an increase to our monsoon thunderstorms especially over Eastern Arizona and the Mogollon Rim.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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