Severe monsoon thunderstorms with flooding to impact Southern Arizona on Wednesday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Wednesday, 31 July 2024, Southern Arizona is expected to be lit up with monsoon thunderstorms and push northward into Pima, Santa Cruz, Cochise, and Pinal Counties over the course of the day. Gila and Southern Maricopa counties are also expected to experience some convection as the system moves through today. Some of these storms are likely to have severe parameters associated with them.

Model precipitation for Wednesday, 31 Jul 2024Photo byWindy.com

The steering flow is from the south and moving north. Mid-level speed divergence coupled with moderate to high instability may lead to convective wind gusts over 60 mph, up to one-inch hail, and localized flooding 1-2 inches in specific locals. The best push of thunderstorms will be for Santa Cruz and Pima Counties, starting up after 11 am and moving into the early evening hours. Also, the best chance of flooding will be between Nogales and Sells, as they look to be in the crosshairs of the isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Tucson looks to be more in the vicinity to the east of the city and north in the Catalina Mountains. However, it is still possible to push into the metro today. Cochise, Pinal, Southern Maricopa, and Gila are looking for more isolated thunderstorm activity throughout the day.

As always, please be aware of your local radar and NWS Warnings, and if your local roads are flooded, please do not cross. Be safe!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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