Significant severe thunderstorms for Arizona on Tuesday with an influx of tropical moisture

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Tuesday, 6 Aug 2024, expect the East Pacific influx of tropical moisture as promised, which I have been forecasting since 27 Jul 2024. It is here to push into the state and increase the monsoonal thunderstorms, flooding in Arizona, and severe weather for the day.

Model data thunderstorms for Arizona on Tuesday 6 Aug 2024 afternoon.Photo byPivotal Weather

The East Pacific tropical basin is on fire with four simultaneous Tropical Storms as of 5 Aug 2024 with Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio. Daniel has been recently downgraded to a Tropical Depression, but it is still very active in the East Pacific basin. This information can be found at the NHC. How will this impact Arizona in the next few days? There is some contention on the flow of tropical storms Emilia and Fabio. Some models indicate a Fujiwara effect and absorption of one of the storms, while the official National Hurricane Center depicts two separate storms over the next 24-48 hours. Either way, I am expecting an influx of tropical moisture into Arizona and more thunderstorms for the state.

The Arizona Weatherman expects monsoon thunderstorms to start igniting on the Mogollon Rim and in Southern Arizona after 12 p.m. in the afternoon. This activity will impact multiple counties over the course of the day. On the Rim, Apache, Navajo, Gila, Coconino, Yavapai, and moving into Mohave later in the afternoon. In the south, Southern Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Southern Pima Counties. Later in the afternoon, expect thunderstorms to come off of the Rim, develop in Southern Arizona, and then push into Pinal and Maricopa counties. This is a dynamic event, and I really expect significant widespread severe potential from some of these storms. Tucson is in the crosshair, Central and western Pima County, Pinal, and even into Maricopa and Phoenix in the evening hours.

The instability indices are very high in Gila, Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa Counties, with CAPEs in the range of 3,500 to 4,200, LIs in the -7 to -9 range, no significant capping, and significant hail indicators, and even some shearing as well. This event may prove to be a dangerous one. I am expecting the potential for severe winds >60 mph, hail more than one inch, dust in prone areas, localized flooding 1-2 inches, and a slight chance even for tornados. I don’t say this lightly, but the indicators and instability are there to warrant forecasting.

Please watch your local NWS warnings and local radar data and be situationally aware of your surroundings before traveling on Tuesday. This is shaping up to be a widespread severe event, so just be safe in your activities throughout the day.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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