Severe monsoon thunderstorms to impact Arizona today with strong winds, hail, and flooding

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Sunday, 11 August 2024, Arizona will experience an active monsoon thunderstorm day. The severity of these storms, especially in the southern to central area of the state, is a cause for concern. Residents and travelers should be prepared for potentially dangerous conditions.

Model thunderstorm potential for Arizona on Sunday, 11 Aug 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

An upper-level low over the Mexican Baja peninsula will provide upper-level diffluence over the southern and central parts of the state and a steering flow from the south towards the north through the afternoon into the evening hours. Additionally, moderate to high instability is also in the area with CAPEs in the 2,000 to 3,000 range, LIs in the -6 to -8 range, and no significant capping; additionally, hail indicators on the skew-T data. Therefore, expecting strong gusty winds of >60 mph, possible dust storm potential, hail up to one-inch, and localized flooding for Cochise, Santa Cruz, Pima, Pinal, and even evening Maricopa Counties.

The Mogollon Rim will also be lit up with thunderstorms after 12 p.m. Yavapai, northern Mohave, Coconino, Apache, Navajo, Gila, and Greenlee will also have convective activity today. Coconino County, in particular, will have more widespread thunderstorms. Northern metros and towns such as Flagstaff, the Grand Canyon, and Show Low will be among the areas to be impacted today. For the southern section of the state, Nogales, Tucson, Sierra Vista, Benson, and into the evening hours, Phoenix may also get hit after 7 pm and into 11 pm. The storms are looking to develop in the south and push northward through Pinal County and into Maricopa County in the evening. Usually, this comes with dust storms as well. Therefore, when traveling today, be aware of local radar, NWS warnings, and flooding conditions.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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