How is Arizona’s monsoon season doing with regard to rainfall so far?

The Arizona Weatherman is assessing Arizona’s mid-season monsoon rainfall so far. Many forecasters and climatologists, including myself, forecasted this season would be a below-average monsoon season for Arizona rainfall. So, in some locations, that is true. However, other locations are either average or above average for the season so far as of 15 Aug 2024.

CLIMAS rainfall map for Arizona as of 14 Aug 2024Photo byCLIMAS

How does your area in Arizona fare in terms of rainfall so far? The above map depicts areas that are above average with dark green and blue colors and below average with a brown color. Areas that are below average are the Grand Canyon and south of it, Southern Mohave and Northern La Paz Counties, the Phoenix metro area, Greenlee County, and the Show Low area. The areas above average are Northern Mohave, Eastern Yuma, Pima, Pinal, Coconino, Yavapai, Gila, Central Navajo and Apache, Western Graham, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties.

Monsoon rainfall totals for Southeastern ArizonaPhoto byNWS

How does Southeastern Arizona break down for rainfall? Tucson's is above average, with 5.43 inches compared to an average of 3.36 inches. Sierra Vista, Willcox, and Ajo are about average, and Safford is the only location below average.

Monsoon rainfall totals for Central ArizonaPhoto byNWS

Phoenix is below average for central Arizona, with .40 inches compared to an average of 1.36 inches. This is drier than normal for much of Northern Maricopa County. Globe, Apache Junction, and Tacna are near normal for the season, while Gila Bend, Quartzsite, Parker, and Yuma are all below average.

Monsoon rainfall totals for Northern ArizonaPhoto byNWS

For Northern Arizona, Flagstaff is slightly above normal with 4.54 inches of rain, and the average is 4.28 inches. Winslow is also slightly above average, but Kingman, Page, Prescott, and Show Low are below average. If you shake it out, some areas are above average and some below average, but the overall consensus looks like an average rainfall for the state so far. There is still more time until the end of September to make more gains or lose ground. Time will tell.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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