Severe monsoon thunderstorms to lash Southern Arizona this Wednesday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Wednesday, 21 Aug 2024, the next expected stronger monsoon thunderstorm push into Southern Arizona will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The pattern has shifted to allow in more tropical moisture, and severe convection is also looking to be on tap.

Model thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon 21 Aug 2024Photo byWindy.com

The upper-level flow creates speed divergence and directional diffluence for southern Arizona over the next few days. In the mid-levels, the high center will be located near the Texas and New Mexico border, placing southern Arizona under a southeasterly flow that pumps moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico over the state. Additionally, the steering flow will be from the southeast, moving toward the northwest through the day. This system is gearing up to produce significant storms for southern Arizona.

Tuesday will likely have less thunderstorm coverage throughout the state, but Wednesday is the next big day for Arizona. The early forecast skew-t indices indicate higher instability, potential supercell formation, and likely strong storms to push into Cochise, Santa Cruz, Central to Eastern Pima, Graham, and Pinal Counties. Therefore, I expect severe parameters in this region to include winds >60 mph, dust in prone locations, hail up to one inch, and localized flooding with 1-2 inches of rain possible. If this develops as forecast, it is slightly possible for even tornadic potential.

Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be up on the Mogollon Rim for Yavapai, Coconino, and Northern Mohave Counties. There is also a possibility of severe there as well but better chance for localized flooding. This is an initial lookout over the next few days. As always, stay safe, watch your local radar, and be aware of NWS warnings.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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