Isolated severe monsoon thunderstorms persist over Arizona this Thursday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Thursday, 22 Aug 2024, isolated thunderstorms will be expected in the south of Arizona, and in northern Arizona, more isolated to scattered convective activity will be expected today. There is still the potential for isolated severe weather conditions with the thunderstorms throughout the afternoon into early evening hours.

Model thunderstorm data for Thursday, 22 Aug 2024.Photo byWindy.com

The upper-level flow has shifted slightly with the placement of the upper-level high to the east of Arizona. Today continued speed divergence to the north and steering flow more of a southwest to northeast movement of the storms through the day. Additionally, the skew-t indices are still moderate to high instability for the day, with CAPEs in the 1,500 to 2,700 range, LI -6, no capping, and hail indicated for today. Expect the potential for winds >60 mph, dust in prone areas reducing visibility, hail up to one inch, and localized flooding especially for the northern Rim locations.

The main flow will kick off both on the Mogollon Rim and in the south in the afternoon for Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Central to Eastern Pima Counties, move northward through the afternoon hours, and push into Pinal and Graham Counties. In the late afternoon and evening, expect a possible push into northern Maricopa County. The possibility of Phoenix thunderstorms are more likely to the north and east of the metro. The Mogollon Rim will also have isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Mohave, Yavapai, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, and Apache will have storms. The most concentration will be in Cocoino County. Some of the locations to expect thunderstorms in the vicinity or overhead are Tucson, Benson, Sierra Vista, Flagstaff, and the Grand Canyon.

With the possibility of severe weather today, be aware of local weather conditions. This is looking like a isolated severe event. Please be aware of your local radar, NWS warnings, flood-prone areas, and dust-prone areas.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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