Arizona's monsoon isn't over yet: More tropical moisture on the way by this weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Monday, 9 Sep 2024, there will still be some isolated monsoon thunderstorms in the northern part of the state today. This monsoon convective activity will continue to diminish significantly through the week before the next round of tropical moisture pushes into the state by the weekend and early next week.

Model data for potential Tropical Storm Ileana by Friday, 13 Sep 2024.Photo byWindy.com

There will be a lull in thunderstorms by the week’s end. However, a new potential tropical system is expected to develop in the Eastern Pacific by the end of the week and move north-northwestward by the weekend. The models are mixed on the exact location, timing, and moisture content to push into Arizona, but there is hope that the monsoon season is not yet over for the state.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts a 60% chance of tropical system development in the next seven days in the East Pacific as of today. The reason this tropical development is likely is due to the still-warm sea surface temperatures in the range of 86 F to 88 F in this region. Additionally, windshear is going to be low, and probably more significantly, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving into a positive phase, which enhances convective activity along and north of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This combination of factors is looking favorable for tropical storm development. This could lead to the potential development of Tropical Storm Ileana in the East Pacific. So what?

The models are mixed on the timing of development of this next potential tropical storm. Still, it looks like, between Thursday and Friday this week, this tropical system will start to spin up and move northward toward Baja, California, in Mexico. This should cause an influx of tropical moisture up the Gulf of California into Arizona by Saturday through Tuesday. I am not forecasting a tropical storm to directly hit the state but a moisture surge. Additionally, the models are mixed on how much moisture to push into the state by the weekend and how far northward. However, it is in good agreement that at least southern Arizona should see a return of thunderstorms by this weekend. As this system develops, the Arizona Weatherman will watch it and will provide new updates as needed.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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