Answer Woman: Will Asheville see good fall color? What makes for vibrant fall color?

ASHEVILLE - Today's burning question is about what to expect for fall color in Western North Carolina. Is it too early to start making predictions? Email Executive Editor Karen Chávez at KChavez@citizentimes.com and your question could appear in an upcoming column.

Question: When will Asheville start to see fall color? Can we expect a good leaf season along the Blue Ridge Parkway?

Answer: If it feels a bit early to be consulting the experts about fall foliage: It is. But even though I started asking questions well before the end of August, I wasn't even the first to call.

When I spoke with Howard Neufeld, WNC's resident fall foliage expert, on Aug. 20, he said he'd already given three leaf color interviews. Neufeld is a professor of plant eco-physiology at Appalachian State University in Boone, and runs the “Fall Color Guy” Facebook page.

Evan Fisher, a recent UNC Asheville grad in atmospheric sciences, and owner and founder of ExploreFall.com, is seeing pageview numbers ticking up as the opening blushes of fall begin far to the north.

“We’re settling back into a new fall foliage season, interest is starting to ramp up, and the first color changes are already underway up in Alaska, so we’re preparing our maps, battening down the hatches, for a busy but wonderful season in Western North Carolina," Fisher said.

Living in WNC, it's probably no surprise that residents and visitors have a ravenous appetite for fall foliage. The area has a long fall color season. If leaf peepers were so inclined, they could follow the wave of color from 6,000-foot-high elevations to the foothills.

As Neufeld will tell you, we have the highest tree species diversity in the country, each contributing its own shade of orange-yellow-red. In fall, it transforms the WNC forests into a canvas — every tree canopy a unique point of color.

What do we know now?

As of late August, Neufeld said there's no real reason to think that Asheville won't have a good season. The true determining moments for both timing and quality of color will come in mid-September. If those weeks roll in with above average temperatures, it could delay color and impact quality.

But if the second week of September, and into October, brings the usual cooldown — morning lows in the mid to high 40s, moderate day temperatures no higher than 72 degrees, ideally in the 50s and 60s — "that really gets the trees going and then they'll be on time," he said.

“Blue skies, clear nights. That’s generally the perfect combination for a vibrant fall color," Fisher said.

Color change is triggered by two main variables: shortening days and cooling temperatures. Sunny, but not hot, days and cool nights are prime conditions for vibrant pigment. Warmer temperatures through October could delay or mute colors, and, as Neufeld and Fisher both warned, hurricanes and tropical storms can pose some threat to fall foliage.

Drought can also cause some concern, Nuefeld said. But despite a dry June, and a wet July, August has moderated some, which he called a "good sign."

“The fact that we’re not in a drought means the trees aren’t going to drop their leaves early,” he said.

“September will ultimately be the final decider of how this season goes, but I do think we can glean some information from, generally, how this summer has gone, as well as how spring went here, as well," Fisher said. An early spring, like this year's, can encourage early leaf change, he said.

Any red flags?

But by contrast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting slightly elevated temperatures in its current three-month outlook, so that could mean some delay.

But besides that outlook, which Fisher noted was fairly speculative, “there’s nothing that I’m currently looking at that would suggest major reason for concern.”

Similarly, Neufeld said since it only predicts "slightly" above normal, and not a strong heatwave, he views it as possible good news.

As he noted in a recent Facebook post, "meteorologists cannot accurately predict daily weather more than about 8-10 days in advance. Hence, when people ask whether it will be a good year for fall colors, I can't tell you anything with scientific certainty more than two to three weeks in advance. Nor can anyone else no matter what they claim they can do."

What is "on time" in WNC?

As climate change makes temperatures slightly warmer than the historical average more the norm, so too will the later turns for leaves, experts told the Citizen Times last autumn, with fall colors likely coming a few days to a week later than a more "traditional" season.

In recent years, Neufeld said he has noticed greater variability, making fall color more difficult to predict.

In years deemed "on time," high-elevation sites, such as Graveyard Fields and Craggy Gardens on the Blue Ridge Parkway , with elevations above 5,000 feet ― compared to Asheville's approximately 2,200 feet elevation ― could begin to turn the first week of October. In the case of cold weather, it could begin by the end of September.

In the 3,000-4,000-foot elevation range on the parkway, which hugs the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains for 469 miles from Virginia to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Cherokee, the colors could begin to turn from Oct. 10-20.

In the third week, from Oct. 20 to the end of the month, fall colors could begin to peak in Asheville, around the Biltmore Estate and in Hendersonville, at about 2,100 feet elevation.

Fisher said his favorite time tends to be those last 10 days of October.

“In WNC, it doesn’t matter if the season is early or the season is late, there is always a wide swath of mountain that is at peak color somewhere in that range," he said.

Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on X, formerly Twitter, at @slhonosky. Please support local, daily journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times .

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Answer Woman: Will Asheville see good fall color? What makes for vibrant fall color?