(This story was updated because an earlier version included an inaccuracy and now reflects that the hurricane landfall date is Sept. 26.)
A tropical storm is evolving in the western Caribbean with potential to intensify into the "strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season."
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane."
Porter also warned the storm could strengthen into a major hurricane ― a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.
Residents along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region are not the only ones that should be preparing for the storm; Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee, and pockets of far western South Carolina and North Carolina are also expected to be impacted by the development.
"AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm," Porter said. "This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for."
Here's what S.C. and N.C. may experience as the storm moves into the area.
When will the storm make landfall in the US?
The storm is expected to upgrade to a hurricane before making landfall in the U.S. on Thursday, Sept. 26. Meteorologists with AccuWeather are forecasting a widespread 4-8 inches of rainfall across the Florida Pandhandle and Big Bend region through Saturday. A zone of 8-12 inches is possible near the landfall zone. AccuWeather's Local StormMax projects 24 inches of rainfall in total. Wind gusts of 100-120 miles per hour are also expected during landfall, with AccuWeather's Local StormMax indicating 140 miles per hour.
Spin-up tornado risk for southwestern SC
The Florida peninsula and parts of the Pandhandle are at risk of experiencing spin-up tornadoes, along with southern Georgia and southeast Alabama Thursday. On Friday, the tornado risk will shift to eastern Alabama, much of Georgia, southwestern S.C., and parts of far eastern Tennessee.
“Tornadoes embedded in tropical rainbands can be incredibly dangerous, especially after dark,” warned Porter. “Make sure to have your cell phone fully charged and download the AccuWeather app to get tornado warnings and severe weather alerts. It’s a good idea to review safety plans with your family, too. If a tornado warning is issued in your area, make sure you take shelter in a sturdy interior room on the lowest level, away from exterior doors and windows. It’s also important to review evacuation zones and routes if you live near the coast.”
What to know about widespread power outages
Widespread power outages are expected in areas where the storm makes landfall and across the Tallahassee region. The Florida Pandhandle, Big Bend Region, much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee, and pockets of far western S.C. and N.C. should prepare ahead of time for regional and localized power outages.
How will the storm impact Western NC?
Although it is too early to tell how the storm will impact Upstate S.C., the National Weather Service at GSP expects the storm's remnants to reach the region either Thursday night or early Friday morning. An onset of rainfall and breezy winds are possible within that time period.
"There's some uncertainty as to where the storm will track ― whether it will roll into the Upstate, or whether it will push kind of more westward and stay out more over Georgia, Tennessee, west of the Upstate." said Mike Rehnburg with the NWS.
When the storm moves into the area, gusty winds and heavy rainfall may be possible, although projected rainfall amounts were not given at this time. The chance of tornadoes forming in the area is also not out of the realm of possibility. However, Rehnburg said the reality of that occurring is not a "slam dunk," either.
The weather service forecast calls for a 70% chance of rain Thursday night in Asheville, and an 80% chance Friday, with heavy rainfall possible. The forecast is similar for Hendersonville, with an 80% chance of rain Thursday night and Friday.
The NWS's model guidance projects for the storm to move out of WNC by the end of the day Friday or Friday night.
Where is the storm center now?
As of Monday, Sept. 23 at 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center tracked the disturbance centered near latitude 17.6 north North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 miles per hour. On Tuesday and Tuesday night, a northwestward motion is expected, followed by a faster northward or north-westward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
The center of the storm is forecast to move across the Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are currently near 30 miles per hour with higher gusts. The winds are expected to strengthen in a few days, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 90%. Through the next seven days, the formation chance will remain high at 90%.
What will the storm be named when it intensifies?
Helene is the next tropical storm name for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Nina Tran covers trending topics for The Greenville News. Reach her via email at ntran@gannett.com .
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: WNC may be impacted this week by 'strongest hurricane landfall in the US so far this season'
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