The tide is turning against Biden in Aspen

ASPEN, Colorado — In a place where politics typically takes a back seat to global security — and where President Joe Biden generally gets high marks — a consensus has emerged on his candidacy: It’s time to call it quits.

Senior current and former officials, diplomats and lawmakers at the Aspen Security Forum have concluded that Biden’s refusal to step aside is a threat to the U.S. and its allies.

“It’s time for him to move on,” said one former U.S. intelligence official, who — like others — was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the matter.

“It’s time,” said a current U.S. official at the annual event in the Rockies. “It’s over.”

The starkness of the message, even in a place where many hold a dim view of Donald Trump’s chaotic administration and his transactional foreign policy, is a striking barometer of Biden’s political fortunes.

The reaction to the Biden situation comes amid reports that Democrats in Washington believe the president will likely leave. Top democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill have for days behind the scenes tried to push Biden out, saying he can no longer win. Many people here, some with direct connections to the Oval Office, agree. They say he’s likely going to lose.

Some at the event questioned why it’s taken this long for the president to step aside and allow someone else to run against Trump, who is expected to formally accept the nomination Thursday at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

“The idea that they think keeping him on is democratic is wild to me,” said a former senior U.S. official, referring to the Democratic Party. “It doesn’t make sense. It’s contradictory. If he wanted to save democracy — which he did — then he’d realize that what he’s doing isn’t helping.”

Attendees stressed that there’s a need for a steady leader to fend off Russia in Ukraine, manage a delicate balance with China and keep U.S. borders secure.

White House officials maintained that Biden is that person.

"On every issue that is of critical importance of the world ... foreign leaders have been turning to him as they always have. And when I speak to our most important allies and leaders, they have all expressed his confidence in his ability to do the job today," said Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to Biden working on Middle East issues.

But at Aspen, some were already starting to come up with a victory scenario for Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Kamala could win. There’s a real pathway there. Kamala could win back Gaza voters,” said a U.S. official following the campaign.

Aspen is not a political conference. It is filled with policy wonks and tech nerds. But many of the people here have either served in government or are deeply connected to it. The Biden administration did send a cadre of officials to attend, including some from the White House.

They are among a select group of people here who likely have close knowledge of the feeling inside the walls of the White House and the current discourse inside the DNC. Senator Chris Coons (D-Del) is one of those people — a staunch Biden ally and one of his loudest supporters in Aspen.

“The president deserves the respect of having conversations about our path forward constructively and privately and in a way that allows us as a Democratic caucus to come together in support of our nominee, who I believe will be Joe Biden,” he said.

Coons was approached by multiple reporters Thursday, inquiring about if Biden was leaning toward leaving. One of the other Democratic representatives here, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) refused to answer reporters' questions.

Others, however, here are clearly nervous about what a second Trump presidency means for national security policy.

The Trump campaign has made it clear where it stands on only a few issues, including the border, China and Ukraine. Trump’s vice president pick, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), has infamously said of Ukraine that he doesn’t care what happens there . On the border, Trump has promised to cut back on the number of people the U.S. allows into the country. And he’s said he will raise tariffs on Chinese goods.

The Ukraine plan has current and former defense officials — including those from Europe — alarmed at how even a partial defunding of Kyiv’s war effort could lead to Russian advancement in other parts of Europe.

“The war in Ukraine is existential. It's existential, not … even because Putin has not changed any of his original goals, which are not limited to Ukraine only, but to the fundamental reshaping of the European security order,” said Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia in a panel Thursday. “It's existential because at the end of this war, whether we want it or not, those most basic of international norms will be reshaped. The results matter.”

On Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on goods from China, the attendees steeped in the tech world see it as a plan that will ultimately hurt their ability to do business with Beijing. It’s also bad for consumers, Google’s Eric Schmidt said Tuesday.

“This would ultimately result in higher costs for those of you who shop at Walmart and those of you who shop at everywhere else,” he said.

On most other policy discussions, including intelligence, transnational crime and space, attendees said they did not have a clear idea of what Trump planned to do — and that’s what worried them.

“It’s the chaos of the former administration that is worrying,” one former U.S. official said. “It’s never clear what’s going to happen or how things will change. And that consistency matters with allies.”

But there was also another undercurrent among many in the crowd here, which is largely Democratic or moderate Republican: that they’d ultimately still vote for Biden or even an inanimate object instead of Trump.

“I’d give money to a wet mop if it was running against Trump,” one Democratic national security official said.

Alex Ward contributed to this report.