Are the Philadelphia Phillies a Better Team Without Trea Turner?

After losing Game Six of the World Series in 2022 and going home empty-handed, the Philadelphia Phillies had one thing on their mind: go hard in the paint in free agency. One man sat atop the list of the Phillies' most wanted, shortstop Trea Turner.

On December 8th, 2022, the Phillies made it official. They signed Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract.

Since that signing, Turner's tenure with the Phillies has been tumultuous, to say the least. He has batted .282/.332/.468 with 99 extra-base hits, 119 RBI, 44 stolen bases, and a 118 OPS+ across 1,065 plate appearances in 238 games.

While a .800 OPS is not bad by any means, it falls well below his career numbers of .302/.355/.487 for a .842 OPS before his time with the Phillies.

Much of that could be attributed to the extended slump that Turner recently broke out of.

From the All-Star Break through August 13th, Turner batted just .168/.210/.253 with four extra-base hits, seven RBI, and two steals across 100 plate appearances in 22 games. The Phillies went 7-15 in those games.

That was not the first time that Turner has slumped with the Phillies, either. Turner had a rough time adjusting to his new club in 2023. In his first 107 games with the Phillies, Turner batted just .235/.290/.368 with 35 extra-base hits, 34 RBI, and 21 stolen bases across 480 plate appearances.

This led to the famous "Standing Ovation" the Philly Phaithful gave Turner on August 4th, 2023.

But, how have the Phillies performed in games that Turner has not played since joining the Phillies?

It is a small sample size of only 48 games, but the Phillies have gone 31-17 in games not played by Trea Turner since he joined the team for a .646 win percentage. In games that Turner has played, they have gone 132-106 for a .555 win percentage.

While both records are net positives, could the Phillies be a better team without Trea Turner?

Turner brings a wide variety of tools to the table. Over his career, he has been a good hitter, that can hit for power and is one of the fastest players in the game with a 29.3 feet-per-second sprint speed. What he does not bring to the table is a good defensive skillset or a good on-base skillset.

Turner has spent the majority of his career manning shortstop. His speed allows him to reach balls in the hole that most other shortstops can not, but, that is not necessarily a good thing.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Turner has accrued -12 Outs Above Average at shortstop per Baseball Savant . His -4 OAA this season places him 87th out of 97 fielders with at least 250 defensive opportunities.

His arm strength does not get much better. His arm strength this season grades out at 81.4 MPH, placing him in 65th out of 113 players with a minimum of 300 throws. 22 of the 48 players ranked beneath him are first basemen.

So his defense is bad, but what about his ability to get on base?

For his career, Turner has a 6.9 percent walk rate, which falls below the MLB average over that same period of 8.4 percent. This season, Turner has a 5.1 percent walk rate. His walk rate this season places him 224th out of 258 qualified hitters.

His single-season career high for walks sits at 69 currently, but that came back in 2018. He has not walked more than 45 times in a single season since then.

So his glove is bad, and he does not draw many walks. What does he do well, then? As a Philly, the answer has been: not much.

Now, you may respond to that with, "But what about that stretch he had after returning from injury?" And I'm glad you asked.

Trea Turner had an insanely hot stretch upon returning from injury this season. From June 17th through July 14th, the last day of the first half, Turner batted .356/.398/.663 with nine home runs over 108 plate appearances in 24 games. The Phillies went 15-9 over that stretch.

But was that a hot stretch? Or was Turner getting extremely lucky on the balls that he put in play?

Over that span, Turner's BABIP was .370. For the season as a whole, it sits at .357 and his career BABIP is .340. So a good bit of luck played into Turner's hot stretch. But what do his expected stats say?

For that period, in particular, Turner carried a .306 xBA. For the season as a whole, he has a .264 xBA. Those xBA numbers fall 50 and 47 points lower than his actual batting averages over each respective stretch.

His xSLG of .427 this season falls 59 points below his actual slugging percentage, and he carries a wOBA of .364 with an xwOBA of .320.

While the results on the field, for a large portion of the season, have been favorable, the underlying metrics have told a different story.

Turner is currently in his age-31 season. It could be as simple as a decline in ability with age. His speed has already begun to decline from its peak of 30.6 in 2015 and 2021 to 29.3 this season. That could just be the after-effects of his left hamstring strain from earlier in the season, but speed is usually the first skill to deteriorate with age.

While he has not been as threatening at the plate with the Phillies as he was in years past, he has added length to the lineup. At this point in his career, and with how he has performed in over 1,000 plate appearances with the Phillies, however, second in the lineup may not be the best spot for him.

You may look at the above-stated win percentages with and without Turner and not see that big of a difference. But for more perspective, a .555 win percentage over 162 games equates to 90 wins (rounded). A .646 win percentage, however, equates to 105 wins. That could be the difference between the first seed in the playoffs or a Wild Card berth.

To extrapolate more, let's look at how the Phillies offense performed before and while Turner was on the injured list this season.

Turner was placed on the 10-day injured list on May 4th and was activated on June 17th. In that span, the Phillies played to a record of 26-13 for a .667 win percentage, and batted .259/.333/.420.

While Turner was on the injured list, shortstop was manned by Edmundo Sosa for 32 of the 39 games that Turner missed. Sosa batted .275/.336/.505 with 13 extra-base hits and 17 RBI across 120 plate appearances.

While Turner has -4 OAA this season at shortstop, Sosa has positive four OAA at shortstop per Baseball Savant . Sosa's arm is weaker than Turner's, registering an average of 80 MPH on throws from short, but Sosa is the more capable glove and would be a Gold Glove contender if he played every day.

In the 33 games before that stretch, Turner played in every game. The Phillies played to a record of 22-11 for a .667 win percentage but batted only .253/.326/.408.

The sample size of games without Turner is indeed much smaller than the games with Turner. But it is not so small of a sample size that it is rendered irrelevant.

Next, we have Turner's contract. As mentioned above, it is an 11-year, $300 million contract. It also includes a full no-trade clause, so the Phillies will need permission from Turner should they want to trade him at some point in the future.

But, how does that contract affect the future for the Phillies? As we approach a free agent class that includes Max Fried, Juan Soto, and Corbin Burnes, Turner's $27 million average annual salary may put a damper on any hopes the Phillies have of landing a big-ticket free agent.

Adding an outfielder to the mix like Juan Soto could go a long way to making this Phillies club a multi-time World Series Champion this decade, at least on paper. But with Turner's albatross of a contract, seeing Soto in red pinstripes is highly unlikely.

Finally, the hot streak that Turner finds himself in, yet again. Turner was out of the lineup on August 14th after his extended slump that began with the second half of the season. August 14th would be another game the Phillies would win without Turner in the lineup.

While he has been hot since returning to the lineup on August 15th, going 10-for-17 including a walk-off single on August 16th, his underlying metrics still tell a different story.

Turner hit for a .588 batting average across the four-game series, but his xBA sat at only .402. While an xBA of .402 is nothing to scoff at by any means, the difference between it and his batting average in that span indicates that a good bit of luck was involved.

The recent four-game stretch is the smallest of sample sizes that have been analyzed, but it is another example of underlying metrics telling a different story than the surface-level results.

By no means is this a way of saying that Trea Turner is not a "good" player. As stated above, he adds length to the Phillies's lineup and can go on stretches like he has done twice this season where he is the best hitter in the lineup.

This is merely to point out that while Trea Turner is a good player, his contract, his defensive ineptitude at a vital defensive position, and what he is actually capable of at the plate could be holding the Phillies back over the long run.

By no means should Turner be batting second in the lineup when you have hitters like Alec Bohm who could fill that spot better while having underlying metrics that grade out much better.

Trea Turner may have been the man that the Phillies, and the Phaithful, wanted. What the Phillies need , however, may be an entirely different story.