Is Sam Darnold the Next Brett Favre for the Vikings?

Minnesota Vikings football is known for many things – amazing fans, tragic playoff losses, lots of purple – but its history of surprising quarterback seasons is overlooked. The Vikings organization is football rehab for the position. Some of the most out-of-nowhere seasons have happened in Minnesota and Sam Darnold has a great chance to be next.

Darnold could join the likes of Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Brett Favre and Case Keenum. All of them came in as backups, busts or declining players and had an unexpected breakout in Minnesota. Obviously, none of those players has any connection to Darnold. But there are common ingredients: strong offensive coaching staff, talented skill position players and the advantage of playing in a dome. It’s been the perfect place for quarterbacks to put their struggles behind them and maximize their potential.

Darnold might seem like an unlikely candidate to have a breakout season. In six seasons with the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, he’s thrown 63 TDs and 56 INTs and has a 78.3 passer rating. He’s a pariah in New York, in part because the fan base had such high expectations after they drafted him No. 3 overall in 2018. But he’s in the right situation for the Vikings bump.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell runs a quarterback-friendly offense and the weapons are a huge upgrade from anyone Darnold has played with in the past. He’ll be throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, with Aaron Jones running the ball.

The reports on Darnold out of Vikings camp have been positive. He was 4-for-8 for 59 yards in just one drive in his first preseason game. Jefferson told The Athletic that Darnold’s deep passes land like “soft pillows.”

Like some of his predecessors in Minnesota, Darnold’s struggles have to be taken in context. Darnold never had a chance in New York with head coaches like Todd Bowles and Adam Gase. Then he went to Carolina with Matt Rhule and looked decent at times in a tough spot.

Darnold is likely a one- or two-year stopgap. That fits the mold of the other Minnesota quarterbacks. They show up out of nowhere and are gone just as quickly. The Vikings took former Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy at No. 10 overall in this year’s NFL Draft. McCarthy tore his meniscus and is out for the season but this is his team when he’s ready. That doesn’t mean Darnold can’t have success in the short term.

Whether it’s coincidence or something in the organization’s DNA, these quarterbacks followed the same pattern in Minnesota and should give Darnold confidence for this season.

Vikings’ Single-Season Bump

Case Keenum

2016: 9 TDs, 11 INTs, 76.4 rating
2017: 22 TDs, 7 INTs, 98.3 rating
After losing the starting job to Jared Goff with the Rams, Keenum took over for an injured Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford in ‘17. Keenum paired with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, QB coach Kevin Stefanski and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen and led them to the NFC title game.

Sam Bradford

2015: 19 TDs, 14 INTs, 86.4 rating
2016: 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 99.3 rating
The former No. 1 overall pick was OK with the Eagles in ’15 but he became expendable when they drafted Carson Wentz. When Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater hurt his knee, the Vikings acquired Bradford a week before the season. The team wasn’t great, but Bradford had his most efficient year in the pros.

Brett Favre

2008: 22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 rating
2009: 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 107.2 rating
Favre was injured and ineffective with the Jets and left to reunite with former Packers offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell in Minnesota. Favre led the Vikes to the NFC title game, which they lost to the Saints. Amazingly, this was the only time in Favre’s career that he had a passer rating over 100 and he uncharacteristically led the NFL in interception percentage.

Jeff George

1998: 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 72.7 rating
1999: 23 TDs, 12 INTs, 94.2 rating
Like Darnold, the Vikings were George’s fourth team. The former No. 1 overall pick with a canon arm was well suited to get the ball to Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Jake Reed after he took over for Randall Cunningham midseason.

Randall Cunningham

1997: 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 71.3 rating
1998: 34 TDs, 10 INTs, 106.0 rating
Cunningham was out of football in ’96 before Minnesota coach Dennis Green convinced him to return as a backup. The former Eagles star turned out to be the ideal quarterback to throw long passes to rookie Randy Moss. Cunningham, a three-time Pro Bowler in Philly, had his best season.

Warren Moon

1994: 18 TDs, 19 INTs, 79.9 rating
1995: 33 TDs, 14 INTs, 91.3 rating
Moon got to Minnesota in ’94 and hit his stride in ’95 at age 39. He had great chemistry with Carter, who had 122 catches for a career-high 1,371 yards and 17 TDs in ’95. Moon broke his collarbone the following season and then left for Seattle.

One important note on these quarterbacks – none of them reached the Super Bowl and some of them missed the playoffs. That could easily be the case with Darnold. He might have a fantastic season and still not be able to catch the talented Lions and Packers in the NFC North. The Vikings face a murderer’s row of offenses early in the season – the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Lions and Rams all before Week 8. That lineup might result in a few shootouts and big stats for Darnold.

On a personal level, Darnold has a chance to put the “bust” label behind him. His flame-out in New York was high profile and ugly. In Minnesota, he can follow a long line of quarterbacks who’ve set their careers back on a positive course.