Fernando Tatis Jr. is on track to become one of the San Diego Padres' most formidable hitters, having already hit 14 home runs in just 80 games this season.
Unfortunately, a right femoral stress reaction has kept him sidelined since June 21, preventing him from potentially leading the team in home runs.
Despite missing significant time, Tatis Jr. remains only five home runs behind the Padres' co-leaders, Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar. Before his injury, Tatis was the team's top home run hitter at 14 .
A recent analysis of active MLB power hitters included Tatis Jr. and Machado, both of whom were given even odds of reaching the milestone of 500 career home runs. Currently, Machado has 332 career homers, while Tatis has logged 120.
FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar assessed 18 active power hitters in the Major Leagues, predicting whether or not they would reach the 500 career home run mark, a feat only 28 MLB players have achieved.
The most recent addition was Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera in 2021. Cabrera retired last season with a total of 511 career home runs.
Out of the 18 power hitters, two Padres were highlighted, including Tatis Jr. and the Padres' current home run co-leader, Machado.
Both San Diego hitters were given “50/50” odds of eventually joining the 500-club. While 32-year-old Macado has accumulated 332 career homers, 25-year-old Tatis Jr. has logged 120.
Tatis averages 24 home runs per season, but this figure includes three seasons where he played fewer than 100 games.
He missed the entire 2022 season, which is not factored into his average. In 2021 alone, he hit 42 home runs, and when looking only at his performances in 2021 and 2023, his average jumps to 33.5 home runs per season.
Injuries have been a significant hurdle for Tatis Jr. Throughout his career, he has struggled to stay healthy, with every season limited to 100 games due to injury, except for 2020 when he played in the Dominican Winter League.
Additionally, a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs has impacted his career totals.
Tatis signed a 14-year contract with the Padres, giving him a decade to reach the 500-home run milestone.
If he were to retire immediately after his contract ends, he would need to average 38 home runs per season to hit 500, a challenging feat given he has only surpassed that mark once in five seasons.
As Tatis Jr. continues to recover, fans will be watching closely to see if he can overcome these obstacles and solidify his place among baseball's elite power hitters.
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