SEATTLE — We all have those moments in our lives when we've made deals that turned out to be massive mistakes.
Generally speaking, for most of us, they aren't multi-million-dollar mistakes that blow up in our faces in a highly public fashion.
Then, there are the Cleveland Browns, who are going into Year Three of the Deshaun Watson Experience that has been nothing but an unmitigated disaster. The Browns traded with the Houston Texans for Watson's services on March 18, 2022 after he had spent the 2021 season off the field embroiled in multiple sexual harassment allegations. Watson was unhappy with his contract before those allegations became public, and though he was not suspended by the league as they started to become public, he missed the entire season as the Texans had him on hold with "non-injury reasons/personal matter" designations for every single game.
The Browns gave up first-round draft picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well their third-round pick in 2023, and fourth-round picks in 2022 and 2024. Then they signed Watson to a five-year, $230 million contract that was fully guaranteed — a virtually unprecedented folly for such a large, multi-year agreement.
The only way for this deal to come anywhere close to an equitable bargain would be if Watson came out playing at the level he had in 2020. In that season, he led the NFL in passing yards with 4,823, threw 33 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, and had a passer rating of 112.4, which was the NFL's second-best, eclipsed only by Aaron Rodgers'.
Needless to say, that hasn't happened.
In his two complete years with the Browns, Watson has put together two straight seasons of mediocre — and eerily similar — performances. In 2022, he completed 99 of 170 passes (58.2%) for 1,102 yards (6.5 yards per attempt), seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.1. In 2023, he completed 105 of 170 passes (61.8%) for 1,115 yards (6.6 YPA), seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 84.8.
He started just six games in each of those seasons, for vastly different but equally problematic reasons. There was the 11-game suspension levied upon him by the NFL in 2022 which cost him his first 11 games with his new team, and the shoulder injury that ended his 2023 season prematurely.
Perhaps the most obvious example of Watson's regression as a quarterback from his salad days came when you watched all 17 of the sacks he took in the 2023 season. A few were due to protection issues, but more than enough of them came on plays where Watson wasn't going to be comfortable in the pocket if he had the 1976 Oakland Raiders offensive line in front of him, because he wasn't seeing what he needed to see.
If ever there were an on-field personification of Watson's contract, this little reel might be it.
As bad as Watson was last season, the Browns were even worse at the quarterback position without him. Per Sports Info Solutions, Cleveland had a Total Offensive EPA of -0.09 when Watson was on the field, and -0.18 when he wasn't. The Browns' Passing EPA was -0.14 with Watson, and -0.21 without. Cleveland's completion rate dropped from 61.8% to 55.6% with Watson out, the touchdown rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.8%, and the interception rate climbed from 2.4% to 4.2%.
The Browns finished 11-6 in the regular season and made it to the playoffs (where they were summarily decimated by C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans) mostly on the strength of a Jim Schwartz-led defense that ranked second in DVOA behind only the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns ranked 28th in Offensive DVOA and 27th in Passing DVOA, and at no time in the season was that passing game consistently on lock for more than one game.
That it was never consistently on lock for more than one game with the only NFL player to have a guaranteed contract worth $230 million was, to say the least, disconcerting. But it's all illustrative of the team's need for a quarterback who can... well, if not elevate the team on a regular basis, at least avoid literally and figuratively throwing games away. There is no indication that Watson will ever be the latter type of player again.
And given the structure of the contract, there's absolutely nothing the Browns can do to free themselves from Watson until at least the 2026 season —and even that's an onerous breakup. In 2026, the Browns would be on the hook for $72,961 million in dead cap money were they to release him, as opposed to his cap hit of $63,977 million. In 2024, Watson's dead cap is an absolutely incomprehensible $200,712,678 — more than the total active cap spending for 18 of the NFL's 32 clubs . It's not much better in 2025; the Browns would take a dead cap charge of $136,938 million were they to move on. It will be 2027, the final year of Watson's contract, before the Browns get any relief.
Of course, nobody holds any pity for this franchise when it comes to their alleged franchise quarterback. The Browns made a decision that was risky at best and morally repugnant at worst, and when you err on the side of past talent without considering present and future personal and professional complications when making such decisions — and you double down by giving a player a contract that sent all 31 of your business partners into apoplectic frenzies because of the completely guaranteed nature of the contract (a precedent no NFL owner in his right mind would want to set) — well, there's a solid argument to be made that the Cleveland Browns have received exactly what's coming to them.
And nobody is going to cry a river of tears for Watson's wasted potential given the severity of his alleged crimes.
Still, this is a Browns team build by EVP/general manager Andrew Berry and his staff that could be considered a Super Bowl contender if only it had an above-average quarterback. With no guarantee that Watson will ever be that again, head coach Kevin Stefanski has a tough series of decisions to make. Watson said on August 15 that he had been medically cleared for contact before training camp started, but he didn't play a single snap in this preseason. It would appear that the first game action he'll see in 2024 — and the first he's seen since November 12, 2023 — will come in the Browns' regular-season opener against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, September 8.
Stefanski had gone back and forth as to whether Watson would play at all in Cleveland's preseason finale at Seattle on Saturday night. In the end, like so many of the team's dreams with Watson, the plan fell short.
After this game against the Seattle Seahawks — a 37-33 loss in which all the current backups (Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tyler Huntley) played more than credibly — Stefanski is still in limbo between the Deshaun Watson he's seen on the field, and the Deshaun Watson he'd like to see with any consistency of performance.
As they say, availability is an ability.
"With Deshaun, with considerations to the guys who were out on offense; not just the offensive line," Stefanski said about the decision to keep Watson on the bench, which was not Watson's preference. "We just didn't feel like it would be best to put him out there in this setting. Very, very confident in the amount of work he's gotten to date throughout the spring and summer. He'll be ready to roll Week 1."
But what of the Watson Stefanski hasn't seen yet with all the interruptions. both self-imposed on the quarterback's part, and the vagaries of injury luck?
"I think we've had a lot of time together," Stefanski told me. "As an offense, and as a teammate with his team. He's a winner, he continues to win games for us, and I'm excited for him with all the work he's put into the offseason."
At this point, it's as much a wild wish as it is a statement of fact, but it's all Stefanski has at this point. The good news is that with the backups — two of whom will make the final 53-man roster — the Browns probably have enough juice to at least put a credible face on the game's most important position.
Of course, if the Big Short-level mortgage the Browns tried with Deshaun Watson never pans out, one wonders how much it will matter — and how many seasons the team will have sacrificed in terms of real competitiveness at the altar of such an unforced error.
Related: Deshaun Watson Draws Intense Criticism Following Controversial Comment at Browns 2024 Training Camp
Related: Winston Feeding Positivity Into Watson
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