Ah, the scent of freshly cut grass and the sound of helmets clashing—it must mean football is almost back in Ann Arbor. With only five days until Michigan football returns, fans (and self-admitted degenerates like myself) are not just counting the days; we're also diving headfirst into preseason betting odds to keep the excitement alive. If you're anything like me—hi, I’m the problem, it’s me—you might have already placed a bet or two. Or maybe ten. Who's counting?
Michigan's 2024 schedule is a noticeable step up from last year’s relatively smooth sailing. With the Big Ten expansion and a beefed-up non-conference slate, the Wolverines will no longer be waltzing through the first two months of the season. Meaningful football is set to return as early as Week 1, or certainly by Week 2, if the betting experts are to be believed.
So, what do the odds tell us about Michigan’s upcoming opponents? Let’s take a look at the win totals for each team Michigan will face this season, according to DraftKings .
Fresno State: 8 Wins (Over: +110, Under: -130)
The Bulldogs are coming off a solid nine-win season and return their starting quarterback, Mikey Keene. He’s one of four Fresno State players on the preseason All-Mountain West team, making them a formidable early-season foe. While Michigan is a three-touchdown favorite, the game could be closer than the odds suggest. But let’s be honest, we’re not exactly quaking in our maize and blue boots over this one.
Texas: 10.5 Wins (Over: +150, Under: -180)
The Longhorns , led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, are heading into their first SEC season with high expectations. DraftKings is predicting a 10-2 finish, which would be a solid year for Texas. They’ll be a significant challenge for Michigan in Week 2, with UT currently favored by 3.5 points. This is the game that will tell us if Michigan’s title hopes are for real or just preseason fluff.
Arkansas State: 5.5 Wins (Over: -170, Under: +140)
Arkansas State made a bowl appearance last season for the first time since 2019, but a tight loss to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl left them hungry for more. The betting lines are heavily in favor of the Red Wolves going over 5.5 wins, and I’m inclined to agree. However, don’t expect them to upset Michigan.
USC: 7.5 Wins (Over: +105, Under: -125)
USC enters the Big Ten with a lot of fresh faces after losing key players, including No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. DraftKings doesn’t expect much from the Trojans this year, and frankly, neither do I. With just seven wins last season, it’s hard to see them making significant strides in 2024.
Minnesota: 5.5 Wins (Over: +100, Under: -120)
The Golden Gophers are projected to struggle, with odds leaning toward them missing a bowl game. They’ve brought in Max Brosmer, a transfer quarterback from New Hampshire, who had a stellar 2023 season. If Brosmer can adjust to Big Ten play and running back Darius Taylor stays healthy, Minnesota could surprise some folks and hit the over. Their schedule isn’t brutal, and most of their tough games are at home.
Washington: 6.5 Wins (Over: -105, Under: -115)
Washington nearly went all the way last season, falling just short in the National Championship. Now in rebuild mode under new head coach Jedd Fisch, the Huskies are a bit of a wild card. The bettors seem split, but I’m leaning towards the under. This is a team still finding its footing in a competitive conference.
Illinois: 5.5 Wins (Over: +105, Under: -125)
Illinois isn’t getting much love from the oddsmakers, who seem to think the Illini’s magic has run out. They’ve lost key players, including Lions wideout Isaiah Williams, and haven’t brought in any standout recruits or transfers. Head coach Bret Bielema might need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get this team to a bowl game.
Michigan State: 5 Wins (Over: -105, Under: -115)
The Spartans are ushering in a new era with head coach Jonathan Smith and young quarterback Aidan Chiles. Unfortunately for Michigan State, their schedule is brutal, featuring Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State, and Iowa. It’s likely to be a tough first year for Smith, and the odds reflect that reality.
Oregon: 10.5 Wins (Over: +100, Under: -120)
Oregon has reloaded through the transfer portal, bringing in quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Evan Stewart to fill key roles. While the Ducks lost many defensive starters, their talent pool remains deep. I’m inclined to take the over here—when you have this much talent with plus-odds, it’s worth the gamble.
Indiana: 5.5 Wins (Over: -135, Under: +115)
Indiana ’s new head coach Curt Cignetti is bringing an old-school coaching style that worked wonders at James Madison. The oddsmakers are backing the Hoosiers to go over 5.5 wins, which would mean a bowl game in their future. While their schedule is favorable, I’m not convinced they’ll hit that mark just yet.
Northwestern: 4.5 Wins (Over: -120, Under: +100)
After a surprising turnaround last year, Northwestern is expected to regress. However, they return 17 players, including nine defensive starters, the third-most in the Big Ten. The Wildcats have a decent shot to exceed expectations, and I’m surprised they aren’t getting more respect from the betting community.
Ohio State: 10.5 Wins (Over: -150, Under: +125)
The Buckeyes are favored to hit 11 wins, but with a schedule that includes Michigan, Oregon, and Penn State, it’s no walk in the park. Despite the challenges, the oddsmakers believe OSU can pull it off. I’m less certain—11 wins in this gauntlet seems ambitious, and I’d lean toward the under.
As the season kicks off, Michigan fans have plenty to look forward to, but the road to the College Football Playoff won’t be a cakewalk. With a tougher schedule and high stakes in every game, the Wolverines will need to bring their A-game from Week 1.
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