The Cincinnati Reds (63-68) are off on Monday before a three-game series with the Oakland A's. The 2024 season has been marred by injuries left and right and the rotation has been especially affected.
Frankie Montas , Hunter Greene , Nick Martinez , Andrew Abbott , and Graham Ashcraft started the first turn through the rotation. Montas is with the Milwaukee Brewers in a trade deadline deal. Greene is injured. Martinez was moved to the bullpen but then had to jump back into the rotation with these injuries. Abbott is injured. Ashcraft is injured. Add in Nick Lodolo (who spent time on the IL) and the Reds have been through it.
Greene, smartly, got a second opinion on some elbow inflammation he was experiencing following his August 13 start. Considering he lost his entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery, the Reds and Greene had to be cautious.
As it turns out, an MRI revealed that his ulnar cruciate ligament that he had repaired looked "fantastic" and he was just experiencing some inflammation due to a bruise.
Initially, the best-case scenario was to have Greene back and pitching by the end of this week. Now, Greene isn't going to get back to pitching until the inflammation subsides and gave about a two-week window. And that's not saying he's going to jump right back into the rotation, either. He'd need to ramp back up with a rehab start just to be sure.
There are five weeks left of the Reds' season.
Take away the two weeks Greene is out plus the better part of a week when he's on a rehab stint and he would likely return with two weeks to go, give or take.
Is it worth it at that point?
Entering play on Monday, August 26, the Brewers' magic number to eliminate the Reds from winning the NL Central is just 20. With just 31 games to go in the season, the Reds are 7.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot. (and five games behind the New York Mets, the first team out).
Even if the injury is just inflammation and his UCL is looking good, the risks don't outweigh the benefits. Which, at this point, what is the benefit of Greene pitching two or three more times?
For the team, the Reds haven't recovered from going 9-18 in May. They've hovered around .500 in the games since (38-37 since). Plus, they were 16-14 before May.
This is a .500 team at best, unfortunately. All of the injuries, both to field players and pitchers, have become too much to overcome.
In terms of batters, the Reds have 13 players who have played at least 45 games. Five of those batters have a negative bWAR. Three more have less and 1.0 bWAR.
8/13 regular batters this year have been barely over replacement level. Not ideal.
Will Benson leads the team with -1.1 bWAR and he has 346 plate appearances for the team. That's the sixth-most.
16 pitchers have appeared in at least 15 games. Two have negative bWAR ( Alexis Diaz and Fernando Cruz ) and 10 more have less than 1.0.
12/16 pitchers are barely above replacement level. Not great.
In all likelihood, Greene is going to fight to pitch a few more times to close out the season. He's on a ridiculous run of late and has inserted himself in the Cy Young conversation. On the year, he's 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.019. He leads all of baseball with 5.8 hits per nine.
Over his last eight starts, however, Greene has been one of the best in Major League Baseball. He is 4-1 with a 1.07 ERA and a 0.7510 WHIP.
However, the season is 99% lost at this point. Playoffs are not happening. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-reference have the Reds with a 0.4% chance to make the playoffs.
It might be time to regroup, see what is there for 2025, and aim to go into next year full steam ahead.
Local Cincinnati, OH
Most Popular
Comments / 0