Here’s why OKC might not be able to win the 2025 NBA championship

The Oklahoma City Thunder catapulted to the top of the ladder in many offseason power rankings, most notably among the projected favorites to secure next season’s Larry O’Brien Trophy. With a multitude of young and emerging stars on the roster, the franchise is set to compete for many years beyond 2024. However, the upcoming campaign will serve as a measuring stick in evaluating how far (or close) the Thunder are from being legitimate title contenders.

Still, even the perennially battle-tested teams have a flaw that may lead some to lean in the other direction. Oklahoma City is just entering the fold of the top teams; are they ready to suddenly go to the mat?

The one reason not to pick OKC

An MVP candidate, the Rookie of the Year runner-up, and a soon-to-be All-Star manning the team’s star trio makes this group hard to overlook. But is there something glaring enough that makes them a risky pick for next year’s championship?

Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus penned “The Case Against the NBA’s Top 10 Title Favorites in 2025,” evaluating each contending team’s potentially biggest drawback. Oklahoma City is right behind the defending champion Boston Celtics as the favorites to win next year’s crown. But here is Pincus’ reason to pick against the reigning No. 1 seed in the Western Conference:

“It's difficult to argue against the Thunder, who finished (via tiebreaker) as the No. 1 seed last year in the West and have since improved,” he writes . “But this is still a very young, inexperienced team. Caruso has a championship with the Lakers, and Hartenstein was vital to the Knicks in their run last season. The Thunder's core players added experience in last year's postseason, but the team may be a year away when it comes to having the "know-how" to close out later rounds of the playoffs.”

Should OKC be worried?

Interestingly, the Thunder’s greatest asset is their youth, but it also may just be their only drawback. Compared to teams like the Celtics and Denver Nuggets, two of the top players in the West, OKC significantly lacks in the experience department.

In a hypothetical NBA Finals matchup against Boston, OKC would certainly contest the Celtics’ five starters in terms of size, length, and athleticism. But the green and white’s top dogs — Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, and Jrue Holiday — tip the scales with a staggering 10,323 more postseason minutes than the big three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams.

In fact, the head of Boston’s snake — Tatum— has over 4000 playoff minutes compared to OKC’s top player, SGA, with fewer than 900. While experience doesn’t always decide between wins and losses, it is a major silver lining, especially on the biggest stages of the game.

Last season’s 10 playoff games were a boost for the young Thunder team. They weren’t sped up or rattled by the intensity and adrenaline of the moment, which says a lot about a team whose three best players are ages 26 or younger. While winning an NBA championship next season may be largely unprecedented because of its youth, Oklahoma City’s roster is as formidable as any in the league, and teams will have to treat them that way.

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