After disappointing 2023 seasons, TCU and Stanford both have their sights set on a rebound year in '24. After playing in the national championship game in coach Sonny Dykes' first year, the Horned Frogs regressed to 5-7 last fall. The Cardinal went 3-9 in coach Troy Taylor's debut and closed by losing five out of their last six contests. This matchup should be the best or the most competitive of a six-game slate on Friday night in Week 1 of the college football season.
Dykes had a busy offseason to steer the program back to the top of a wide-open Big 12. Former Boise State coach Andy Avalos was hired to coordinate the defense, and the program reeled in over 20 transfers to find quick fixes on both sides of the ball. Stanford wasn't as active in the portal, but Taylor landed a top-35 recruiting haul and hopes another offseason of development puts this team on the right path in its first season in the ACC.
TCU has won all three meetings against Stanford. The Horned Frogs and Cardinal last played in the '17 season, with TCU winning 39-37 in the Alamo Bowl.
TCU at Stanford
Location: Stanford Stadium in Stanford, Calif.
Kickoff: Friday, Aug. 30 at 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: TCU -9.5
Over/Under: 60
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, and Stormy Buonantony
Why TCU Will Win
The Horned Frogs have more firepower on offense and should show some improvement on defense with Avalos calling the plays. Although Stanford is trending in the right direction under Taylor, TCU enters this game with a better overall roster and setup for '24.
Quarterback Josh Hoover (2,206 yards and 15 TDs) showed promise in a late-season stint, and TCU is loaded at receiver with Boise State transfer Eric McAlister, Savion Williams, and JP Richardson. An offensive line that returns only one starter is a concern, but Stanford struggled at the line of scrimmage last season and that group remains a concern this fall.
The spring transfer of Damonic Williams was a setback for TCU's defense, but Avalos still inherits six returning starters and a handful of transfers. After giving up nearly 30 points (29.6) and struggling to stop the pass last year, the Horned Frogs have the pieces in place to improve on defense.
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Why Stanford Will Win
On paper, TCU has a better roster. However, as the college football world already witnessed in Week Zero, upsets (especially early on) happen every season. With 16 returning starters and a better overall foundation entering Taylor's second year, the Cardinal could be ready to surprise.
The Horned Frogs struggled against the pass last fall, and despite the arrival of a couple of key transfers, this unit remains a question mark going into the opener. Stanford can take advantage of the pass defense with quarterback Ashton Daniels more comfortable in Taylor's offense, along with the emergence of receiver Elic Ayomanor (62 catches for 1,013 yards last year). Daniels could share snaps in this game with talented true freshman Elijah Brown and Justin Lamson.
With seven returning starters, Taylor must hope experience translates into production on defense. The Cardinal struggled mightily on this side of the ball (37.7 points a game allowed) last year.
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Final Analysis
Moving to the ACC creates new challenges for Stanford in '24, but Taylor has this team on the right track. However, an upset win over TCU might be too tall of a task for Week 1. The Cardinal have too many question marks on defense and lack a consistent ground game to improve a rushing attack that averaged only 3.5 yards a carry last fall. Expect a spirited effort from Stanford, but the Horned Frogs have too much firepower and are improved enough on defense to escape with a 1-0 record.
Prediction: TCU 34, Stanford 24
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