West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction

Premier non-conference matchups played at campus venues have become unfortunately rare in college football, so credit West Virginia football. Not only have they renewed their rivalry with Pitt in recent years, years after both schools left the Big East. but they open their season with an even more prominent opponent: Penn State.

Neal Brown entered the 2023 season on the hot seat, and the Mountaineers answered the call, going 9-4 behind a balanced offensive attack and improved defense. Garrett Greene turned in a rock solid season under center, while WVU pounded the rock to the tune of 228.9 rush yards per game — good for fourth in the FBS. The defense remains a work in progress, but improved on its woeful 2022 performance and adds a number of veteran transfers to the mix. They’ll get a real test in Week 1 against a Penn State team that looks to take a leap on offense with the hire of former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki . The Nittany Lions already have an effective rushing attack, but want more out of quarterback Drew Allar, especially in big games. WVU will be a good early test before PSU gets into the heart of Big Ten play in October.

Penn State and West Virginia share plenty of history, although it is very one-sided. The Nittany Lions are 49-9-2 all-time in the matchup, and won last year’s game 38-15. West Virginia’s last win in the series came back in 1988.

West Virginia vs. Penn State

Location: Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV
Kickoff: Saturday, Aug. 24 at Noon ET
TV: Fox
Spread: Penn State -8.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Announcers: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft

Why West Virginia Will Win

In a strength vs. strength matchup, West Virginia shouldn’t back off of its running game. Running backs Jahiem White (842 yards, four touchdowns in 2023) and CJ Donaldson Jr. (798 yards, 11 touchdowns) both return to the offense, while Greene adds his own rushing element (772 yards, 13 touchdowns). The Mountaineers also have an experienced offensive line with three starters returning. WVU wasn’t particularly efficient in last year’s game against Penn State, but managed 146 yards and two scores on 40 carries, without White yet playing a role in the offense.

Greene also struggled in the passing game, completing 16-of-27 passes for 162 yards. He took steps forward as the season progressed, and proved to be very safe with the ball, throwing just four interceptions on the year.

Penn State should improve offensively on paper under Kotelnicki, but West Virginia has taken strides on defense as well, making significant additions through the transfer portal, including defensive end T.J. Jackson (Troy), linebacker Reid Carrico (Ohio State) and cornerbacks Ayden Garnes (Duquesne) and TJ Crandall (Colorado State). The Mountaineers registered a Big 12-high 33 sacks a year ago, and with Penn State’s struggles to get receivers open downfield a year ago, putting the offense in third-and-long situations will challenge Allar to make the big throws that eluded him a year ago.

Milan Puskar Stadium is a very difficult place to play, and both the West Virginia players and fans remember Penn State tacking on a late touchdown in last year’s game, when the result was already well in hand.

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Why Penn State Will Win

While the Nittany Lions have struggled to take the leap into true national championship contention under James Franklin, he’s taken serious strides to address the team’s biggest issues from a year ago.

Kotelnicki, a key figure in Lance Leipold’s incredible Kansas rebuild, should keep Penn State’s FBS-best rushing attack humming. Kaytron Allen (902 yards, six touchdowns in 2023) and Nicholas Singleton (752 yards, eight touchdowns) both return to the offense. West Virginia rush defense improved last year, but allowed 4.25 yards per carry.

The more significant aspect of Kotelnicki’s job will be opening up the passing attack. Kansas quarterbacks averaged 10 yards per attempt in 2023. Allar posted an impressive 25 touchdowns to just two interceptions, but averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt. Penn State was 90th in FBS as a team in that category. Transfer receiver Julian Fleming (Ohio State) also adds a dimension to the passing attack that was missing from PSU’s offense a year ago, while tight end Tyler Warren should be one of college football’s best in ’24.

The Nittany Lions defense should be an elite unit once again, and enter the season ranked fourth in ESPN’s SP+ projections . Penn State should have a robust defensive front, with All-Big Ten linebacker Abdul Carter making the move to defensive end , where he hopes to be even more disruptive. If Penn State can slow down the West Virginia run game and force Greene to make big throws, it will be hard for the ‘Eers to compete in this one.

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Final Analysis

Winning a true road game like this isn’t easy, but Penn State has a talent edge and should make legitimate strides on offense with Kotelnicki revamping an experienced unit. West Virginia should be very competitive, but expect the Nittany Lions to grind out a win that should look very good when it comes time to rank College Football Playoff contenders.

Prediction: Penn State 24, West Virginia 19

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