A Sunshine State battle between Miami and Florida is one of the marquee games for college football's Week 1 slate for the 2024 season. In addition to the bragging rights that go along with a victory over an in-state rival, this game is also huge for the perception of both programs and the two coaches - Florida's Billy Napier and Miami's Mario Cristobal - as they begin their third season in charge.
Florida coach Billy Napier inherited some roster challenges in 2022, but his seat is getting warm with an 11-14 mark over the last two years. A third consecutive losing season could spell the end of Napier's tenure, but the roster is in overall better shape than it was just a few years ago. With a tough schedule on tap, the Gators won't have much margin for error.
Miami took a step forward in Cristobal's second year (5-7 to 7-6), but the season was also overshadowed by a end-of-game debacle against Georgia Tech. With another standout recruiting class and portal haul, along with a wide-open ACC, expectations are high for Miami to challenge for a conference title and show major progress in the win column.
Miami holds a 29-27 series lead over Florida. The Gators won the last meeting in 2019, a 24-20 outcome in Orlando. These two teams last met in Gainesville in '08.
Miami at Florida
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla.
Kickoff: Saturday, Aug. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Miami -2.5
Over/Under: 54.5
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George
Why Miami Will Win
The Hurricanes have the better roster. Between Cristobal's work on the recruiting trail and in the portal, this team doesn't have many glaring flaws for the '24 season.
Washington State transfer Cam Ward could be the ACC's top quarterback, and fellow portal acquisition (Oregon State running back Damien Martinez is an Athlon Sports preseason All-American. The 'Canes have one of the ACC's top receiving corps and an offensive line that ranks among the best in college football. If Ward lives up to the hype as one of the top portal quarterbacks, then Miami's offense is primed to take off in '24.
With both teams strong on offense, a stop or two on defense could determine the winner. Miami has the edge here, as coordinator Lance Guidry's group held teams to 22.8 points a game and 5.2 yards per play - numbers significantly better than the Florida unit posted (6.44 yards a snap and 27.6 points per contest) in '23. Additionally, the 'Canes continued to improve the defense in the offseason with a couple of key portal pickups, including end Tyler Baron, tackle Simeon Barrow, linebacker Jaylin Alderman, and defensive backs D'Yoni Hill and Mishael Powell.
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Why Florida Will Win
Miami doesn't have many glaring weaknesses, but the secondary lost a handful of key contributors from last season. Assuming Florida's offensive line holds up, quarterback Graham Mertz and receivers Eugene Wilson III, Elijhah Badger, and Chimere Dike and should have opportunities to test Cristobal's rebuilt secondary.
Miami's rush defense ranked second in the ACC last season (105.6 yards a game allowed), and this front could be even better in '24 with the added pieces from the portal, along with the return of end Akheem Mesidor from injury. However, the Gators found ways to churn out yardage on the ground in five matchups against ranked teams last year, recording 4.5 yards a carry. Running back Montrell Johnson missed time in the fall due to knee surgery but is on track to play on Saturday. If Mertz can successfully attack through the air, Johnson and the other Florida backs should eventually find a little room on the ground.
It's no secret Florida's defense struggled mightily last year. The Gators allowed 27.6 points a game and 6.4 yards a play in 12 games in '23. Additionally, this unit gave up too many big plays and struggled to stop the run. With a new voice (Ron Roberts) joining coordinator Austin Armstrong, there's optimism this unit can show some improvement on the stat sheet. Also, the overall depth and personnel is better this year, which includes key transfer pickups - lineman Joey Slackman and linebacker Pup Howard - and a couple of freshmen - linebacker Myles Graham and defensive lineman LJ McCray.
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Final Analysis
This is one of the toughest games in Week 1 to get a read on. On paper, Miami is the better team. But will all of the 'Canes new pieces come together by the opener? Florida's defense needs to show marked improvement for Napier's team to make a significant jump in the win column. The Gators still have some issues on that side of the ball in this one, but Mertz delivers a couple of clutch drives in the second half, while the homefield advantage of the Swamp is the difference in a close one.
Prediction: Florida 27, Miami 24
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