A high-profile showdown between USC and LSU in Las Vegas is set for Sunday night in Week 1 of the 2024 college football season. Although nearly 2,000 miles separate the two campuses, there are many similarities between the Tigers and Trojans this year. Both USC and LSU have new coordinators on defense after disastrous '23 seasons on that side of the ball. Also, both teams are replacing NFL first-round picks at quarterback after Caleb Williams (USC) and Jayden Daniels (LSU) departed for the next level.
LSU coach Brian Kelly has won 10 games in back-to-back seasons, and the '24 season is all about taking the next step despite some key personnel departures. If the Tigers improve defensively, the offense should be able to reload and push this team into contention for a CFB Playoff spot. Also, the schedule breaks in favor of Kelly's squad. Road trips to South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Florida will be tough, but Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma all visit Baton Rouge.
USC coach Lincoln Riley is also in his third year, but the question marks surrounding this program are greater than the ones around Kelly's team. After a disappointing 8-5 record last fall, the Trojans are making the move to the Big Ten and enter their new conference with question marks on both sides of the ball. Riley took steps to fix a struggling defense, but is it enough in '24 to contend for a spot in the Big Ten title game?
This is just the third all-time meeting between USC and LSU. The Tigers won the last matchup in 1984, while the Trojans took the first meeting in '79.
USC vs. LSU (Las Vegas)
Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 1 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Spread: LSU -4.5
Over/Under: 64.5
Announcers: Rece Davis, Kirk Herbstreit, and Holly Rowe
Why USC Will Win
USC will miss quarterback Caleb Williams, but Riley's track record suggests the offense should still remain among the best in the Big Ten. New quarterback Miller Moss had a promising start in the Holiday Bowl and maintained his hold on the No. 1 spot all offseason after being pushed by UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. Moss could be Riley's next superstar pupil under center, and there's no shortage of skill talent with running back Woody Marks and receivers Zachariah Branch, Duce Robinson, and Ja'Kobi Lane.
The Trojans have struggled mightily on defense since Riley's arrival. The '22 unit tied for 93rd nationally with 29.2 points allowed and surrendered 34.4 points per contest last fall. In addition to the struggles on the stat sheet under former coordinator Alex Grinch, this unit was often out of place in alignment, took bad angles in tackling, and gave up too many big plays.
New coordinator D'Anton Lynn guided UCLA's defense to a place among the best in the Pac-12 last season and should get USC's unit on track in '24. Although the Trojans still need more talent on this side of the ball, Lynn isn't lacking for talent to develop. USC's defense won't become elite overnight, but Lynn's play-calling and scheme will help this unit perform better right away and increase the odds of an upset in Las Vegas on Sunday night.
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Why LSU Will Win
LSU lost a lot from last season's offense that finished atop the nation in scoring (45.5 points a game) and yards per play (8.4). Coordinator Mike Denbrock departed for Notre Dame, and quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers were all first-round picks.
While those losses are steep, the Tigers may not miss a beat on offense. New play-caller Joe Sloan worked with the quarterbacks last season and should have a seamless transition into the coordinator role. Also, new quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrived in limited snaps - including a standout performance in the bowl last year against Wisconsin - and is one of college football's top rising stars under center. Also, the receiving corps isn't lacking for talent with Kyren Lacy and tight end Mason Taylor back in '24. Also, four starters - including tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones - are back to form one of the top offensive lines in the nation.
LSU's defense struggled mightily last season, but the hire of Blake Baker as the team's new coordinator should pay instant dividends. The Tigers surrendered 28 points a game and over six yards a snap last fall, but the talent level on this group is better than those totals showed. With Baker's scheme and play-calling, look for this group to show progress on the stat sheet in '24.
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Final Analysis
Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley both hope the 2024 season showcases their respective program is clearly ready to take the next step. With both teams breaking in new defensive coordinators and new personnel on that side of the ball, it wouldn't be a surprise if Sunday night's game becomes a high-scoring affair. The guess here is Nussmeier and LSU's offensive line will be the difference, while the Bayou Bengals' defense makes a couple of key plays against a suspect USC offensive line to seal it in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: LSU 34, USC 27
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