Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Upstart Sun Devils Aim for First-Ever SEC Win vs. Bulldogs

Arizona State and Mississippi State each find themselves in flux during the 2024 season. The Sun Devil are new members of the Big 12, and seek to take a step forward after a 3-9 start to the Kenny Dillingham era in ’23. Mississippi State brought in Jeff Lebby — architect of Oklahoma’s explosive offense a year ago — as head coach after firing Zach Arnett just 10 games into his first full season leading the Bulldogs.

So far, so good for both the Sun Devils and Bulldogs. Arizona State blew out Wyoming 48-7. The Sun Devils struggled with FCS program Southern Utah in its opener a year ago (24-21) and were shutout by Fresno State, 29-0. This year’s Week 1 game showed marked improvement. Mississippi State knocked off FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky 56-7, scoring touchdowns on six of their first seven full drives.

Saturday’s game will be the first meeting between the two programs. The Bulldogs are scheduled to host the return game in ’25.

Arizona State vs. Mississippi State

Location: Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, Ariz.
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 7 at 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Arizona State -6
Over/Under: 60.5
Announcers: Mark Jones, Roddy Jones and Quint Kessenich

Why Arizona State Will Win

The Sun Devils pounded the ball against Wyoming, racking up 241 yards and two touchdowns on 49 carries. Cam Skattebo, an Athlon preseason All-Big 12 third-team selection at running back, was the headliner, but Dillingham was happy to spread the love. Arizona State had 11 different players carry the ball, with five receiving at least six touches on the ground. That includes quarterback Sam Leavitt, who proved to be dangerous with 47 yards on eight carries. The Sun Devils also have one of the country’s most experienced offensive lines, with 156 career starts as a group (fifth in FBS).

That approach should serve ASU well on Saturday night. Arizona is mired in a long heatwave, and it will be well over 100 degrees in Tempe. Mississippi State’s offense possessed the ball for under 22 minutes thanks to its quick strike ability against EKU. Arizona State would love the opportunity to lean on the Bulldogs for nearly 40 minutes in the desert heat.

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Why Mississippi State Will Win

Arizona State has not shied away from the fact that it has never beaten an SEC opponent this week. Mississippi State may not be Alabama or Georgia, but there is a serious talent gap on a team-for-team basis between the SEC and Big 12.

While Lebby has rebuilt his first Bulldogs roster with numerous transfers, he’s done a nice job of finding system fits. That is certainly the case for quarterback Blake Shapen, who jumped at the chance to play for the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator after going head-to-head against the Sooners while at Baylor. Shapen averaged 12.35 yards per attempt last week, and accounted for four total touchdowns. Pro Football Focus gave him the second-highest rated Week 1 grade of any quarterback.

He has a number of big play threats on offense, with Jordan Mosely going for 104 yards and a touchdown in the season opener, and Kevin Coleman adding 88 yards and a score. ASU ranked 123rd in the FBS in passing offense a year ago, allowing more than 263 yards per game.

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Final Analysis

A close matchup on paper, Shapen’s multiple seasons of college experience give Mississippi State an edge over Arizona State, which is bringing along a pretty green quarterback in Leavitt. The Sun Devils were impressive against a Wyoming team that didn’t pose much of a threat through the air. Lebby’s offense will be a dramatically bigger test.

Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Arizona State 34

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