The Minnesota Vikings open the 2024 regular season against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium at noon on Sunday.
It's the first time these two teams have played each other since the 2022 NFC Wild Card game when the Giants defeated the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium 31-24.
A lot has changed since then, as the Giants no longer have running back Saquon Barkley and the Vikings have Brian Flores instead of Ed Donatell manning the defensive coordinator position.
The Vikings have arguably the best player on the field Sunday afternoon in wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
Last game against New York, Jefferson was held to only 7 catches on 47 yards as he was double-teamed all game, an expectation at this point for Jefferson. However, the game prior to that against the Giants, he hauled in 12 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants have a youthful secondary that will surely have their hands full in covering the former Offensive Player of the Year.
Minnesota offensive coordinator Wes Phillips and head coach Kevin O'Connell will look to get the ball in the playmaker's hands whenever possible.
Josh: KOC and Flores
Say what you want about the Vikings’ roster but they have some excellent coaches and play callers, specifically Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores.
Since O’Connell took over two years ago, the Vikings have had the second-most explosive passing game in the entire league, and that’s despite the quarterback carousel last season.
Meanwhile, Flores did a fantastic job of elevating Minnesota’s defense last year. Under him, the Vikings cut down 25+ yards per game against both the run and pass from 2022, moving from a bottom-five defense to a middle-of-the-pack unit last season, and the group added even more defensive help this offseason.
They’ll make life tough on the Giants and put Minnesota in a great position to win.
Why I’m concerned
Tommy: Sam Darnold
Yes, Jefferson is why I am confident in the Vikings getting a win on Sunday, but the man throwing to him is also why I am concerned.
Darnold is familiar with MetLife Stadium, as he played there his first three seasons in the NFL with the New York Jets. This is the first time he's started for a team that has as much talent as it does, so it could be a coming out party for Darnold as he enters his seventh NFL season.
Ultimately, Minnesota doesn't need the 27-year-old to be elite, as an established running game involving Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler will go a long way in taking some of that pressure off of the new Vikings quarterback.
However, if Darnold doesn't play at the level Vikings coaches want him to be at and is pressured by the Giants' defense — specifically Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence — it could be a long day. Darnold's performance will dictate how far the Vikings will go in this game and beyond.
Josh: Vikings offensive line
Minnesota has struggled the past few years to get solid contributions from the offensive line, particularly the interior. All that has changed from last season is Blake Brandel, who has hardly any starting experience or track record of success in the NFL, starting at left guard.
Meanwhile, the unit will have to deal with Pro Bowlers Burns and Lawrence, who is also an All-Pro, and former first-round pick Thibodeaux.
That’s a tall task for any team to deal with and, until this group can offer a reason to believe otherwise, it’s hard to have a lot of faith that the Vikings’ O-line will hold up.
Key matchup
Tommy: Vikings pass rush vs. Daniel Jones
The Vikings will be without pass rusher Danielle Hunter as he signed with the Houston Texans this offseason. That doesn't mean Minnesota is doomed when rushing the passer, which will be crucial against Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.
Minnesota signed Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner to man the outside linebacker positions and have Jerry Tillery, Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard on the defensive line. Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. fill out the inside linebackers who all can be used on blitzes that Flores often likes to do.
Against a scrambling, quick quarterback though, the Vikings will need to have a gameplan to contain Jones.
He had the NFL's worst passer rating under pressure at 35.2 last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Giants revamped its offensive line with signing of Jon Runyan, Greg Van Roten and Jermaine Eluemunor, but Jones' tendencies when being pressured should be focus in this matchup and how Minnesota can capitalize on it.
Josh: Vikings offensive line vs. Giants defensive line
As explained above, Minnesota’s offensive line is going to have its hands full against New York’s front and Lawrence in particular.
There is all kinds of potential for the Giants’ group to wreck the Vikings run game and make Darnold’s debut a nightmare.
If the Vikings can win that matchup, Minnesota will be in fantastic shape overall.
All eyes on
Tommy: Dallas Turner
Even though he's slotted behind Van Ginkel on the depth chart, Turner will surely get a lot of snaps against the Giants.
As previously mentioned, Jones gets antsy when under pressure and it could be a game that Turner breaks out and gets the league's attention immediately.
The Vikings traded up six spots for the 17th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to take the Alabama edge rusher, a move that makes sense after the departure of Hunter. Teammates have stated Tuner is a like a "sponge" in soaking up as much knowledge as he can so far in the preseason.
With rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy out of the season, Turner could be the team's rookie to have the biggest impact in 2024.
Josh: Sam Darnold
Minnesota’s new QB1 is 8-12 in his career as a starter at MetLife Stadium, which he called home for his first three NFL seasons with the New York Jets. He last started there in 2021 when his Carolina Panthers lost to the Giants 25-3.
He’s deflected the focus from himself all summer but he won’t be able to hide on Sunday, as all the attention will be on his Vikings debut.
Prediction
Tommy: Vikings 23-20
Honestly, the Vikings having a letdown season opener like they did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home a year ago wouldn't come as a surprise, especially to the fanbase. However, the Vikings have weapons on offense in Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones while the Giants are rolling out almost an entirely new unit on offense with plenty of youth on defense. Vikings win a close one, maybe even with a Will Reichard game-winning field goal in the final moments.
Josh: Vikings 27-13
I feel good about the Vikings overall in this one, but so many new key additions make it a little harder to project how they’ll perform, especially with hardly any preseason playing time.
If Darnold and the Vikings fire on all cylinders, though, Minnesota could have a huge day.
Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell looks on before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium.
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