Robert Saleh Revenge Game: Will Jets Defense Have Advantage Over 49ers?

When the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, it won’t just be a clash of Super Bowl hopefuls vying for a fast start. Nor will it only be the Canton-bound quarterback returning home against a franchise haunted by its proximity to a championship.

It will also be the first time as Jets head coach that Robert Saleh gets to face friend and former teammate, head coach Kyle Shanahan – the prodigal son of the wide zone offense.

Shanahan’s 49ers enter the year as NFC favorites with the conference’s most-feared offense. There may not be a more star-laden supporting cast in the sport, and quarterback Brock Purdy has surpassed every expectation his draft capital set for him. But the Jets boast an elite defense with back-to-back years of dominance and ridiculous talent to boot, setting the stage for the Week 1 finale.

Schematically, how Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich attack San Francisco will be telling in how much they trust their personnel.

Last season, Purdy saw 36 percent of his dropbacks come against Cover 3, tied for the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (via @fball_insights on Twitter ). It’s not a coincidence that Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, operating under a Shanahan protégé, matched that mark – it’s a function of the offense as a whole.

Much of Shanahan’s success comes from forcing teams into Cover 3, then employing a particular beater with an answer for an alternate look.

By running the ball frequently (and well), the 49ers get to see a lot of single-high looks to keep an extra man in the box. That limits opponents to Cover 3 and Cover 1, but with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk on the boundary, tight end George Kittle over the middle, and running back Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, mismatch opportunities are easy to exploit against man coverage.

Few teams can stick with San Francisco in man-to-man. New York, with the NFL’s best trio of cornerbacks, can – at least at receiver.

The first point of contention will be whether the Jets linebackers can hold up in these assignments, especially against McCaffrey. Veteran C.J. Mosley played well last year, earning Pro Football Focus’ highest coverage grade at the position. But in his age-32 season, any sign of decline could put a target on his back, especially on third down, where New York likes to send man blitzes.

Linebacker Jamien Sherwood faces a similar challenge. As the weakest link of the Jets’ starting linebackers, he’ll be taken off the field when the team opts for nickel personnel rather than base. But San Francisco – who ran the second-highest rate of 21 personnel on first down last year (42 percent, via nfelo ) – prefers to stress second-level players in coverage. Shanahan is no stranger to picking on unproven defenders, meaning Sherwood could be in for a long night.

It’s worth noting that the 49ers ran the third-highest percentage of passes over the middle of the field in 2023, and only four teams distributed a higher portion of targets to running backs.

Of course, the Jets don’t have to fall into the same traps other teams due, by virtue of schematic identity or personnel limitations. Saleh’s most common coverage is quarters, which New York ran at the second-highest rate last season (27.6 percent, via MatchQuarters ).

But predominantly running a two-high shell likely means trouble against the best ground game on the schedule, and it may put the Jets defensive line in an adversarial position.

Last year, a league-high 58 percent of Shanahan’s runs went to the left side. All-World left tackle Trent Williams is the reason why. On snaps where New York is a man short in the box, there is greater burden on edge rusher Michael Clemons (base) and Will McDonald (nickel) to hold their own against the sport’s best offensive lineman.

That’s a matchup that could single-handedly ruin the Jets’ night, and it likely pushes Saleh to deviate from his tendencies to some degree. But New York has some advantages, too – virtually everywhere else in the trenches.

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The Jets are among the league’s deepest and most athletic at interior defensive line, and edge rusher Jermaine Johnson is an ascending weapon on the opposite edge. Against an offensive line that is lackluster aside from its lone star, there’s a window for Saleh to take advantage of.

Star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will leave his mark and soak up attention while doing so, but Johnson, Javon Kinlaw and undrafted rookie Leonard Taylor III have the opportunity to tilt this game in New York’s favor by forcing Purdy out of structure and mitigating the rushing attack that makes this offense go.

In a game where Saleh’s secondary can push the bulk of the action inside, it will be his front seven that defines the season opener – even if his quarterback steals the headlines.