Zach Edey: What history reveals about his NBA potential

As Memphis Grizzlies fans gear up for the upcoming season, all eyes are on rookie center Zach Edey. Drafted as the ninth overall pick, Edey enters the NBA with immense expectations. Many hope Edey, a 7-foot-4 standout from Purdue, can help the Grizzlies return to prominence in the Western Conference. But what does history suggest about the trajectory of the top 10 centers in their rookie seasons? Michael Cole of the Memphis Commercial Appeal recently explored this question and provided insightful context on what Grizzlies fans should expect from Edey.

Center rookies face a steep learning curve.

In his analysis, Cole points out that centers often face more challenges in their rookie season than in other positions. He highlights that of the 14 centers drafted in the top 10 since 2015, only seven averaged double-digit scoring during their first year. Notably, six of those players were top-three picks. If Edey were to hit that double-figure mark, he would join an exclusive group that includes players like Wendell Carter and Myles Turner, who found success despite not being top-five picks. Cole writes, "If Edey averages double figures as a rookie, he will join Turner and Carter as the only non-top-five pick centers to do so since 2015."

For most young centers, success takes time to come. Cole cites examples such as Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins, two top-10 picks who took time to develop before becoming regular starters. He explains that while Poeltl eventually found success, it took him until his fifth NBA season to break into a starting role—partly because he had veterans like Jonas Valanciunas and LaMarcus Aldridge ahead of him in the rotation. Luckily for Edey, the Grizzlies don't have that depth blocking his path, allowing him to prove himself early on.

Edey's defense may translate faster than his offense

One of Cole's key points is that rookie centers often make their most significant early impact on defense rather than offense. He points to data showing that, since 2016, most top-10 centers have posted stronger defensive box plus-minus (BPM) stats than their offensive numbers. This is true even for highly touted prospects, with only Deandre Ayton and Chet Holmgren posting better offensive BPMs during their rookie campaigns. Cole notes, "Based on these numbers, Edey's defense should be the easier skill to translate quicker to the NBA."

For Memphis, this may be precisely what they need. Edey's 7-foot-4 frame positions him to be an elite rim protector right from the start. His size and shot-blocking abilities could fill a significant gap for the Grizzlies, especially with Jaren Jackson Jr. benefiting from not having to carry all the interior defensive duties. Cole highlights this point, mentioning that Memphis could use Edey's presence to improve their rebounding and defensive efficiency after a season plagued by injuries and a lack of depth at the center position.

Cole says, "Many centers today are asked to protect the rim on defense and make the most efficient and simple offensive plays. In a nutshell, this will be his role in Memphis."

Ultimately, while expectations are high for Edey, Cole's analysis reminds us that rookie centers often take time to develop fully. Memphis fans can expect vital defensive contributions early, but Edey's offensive game may need more time to reach its full potential.

Related: The Grizzlies' 2024-25 season: Challenges on the horizon