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The 2024 NBA preseason officially begins in less than one month, which means that if you are in the prediction business, we are approaching the buzzer to get in your last-minute prognosis on the season.
The kind of production Jalen Williams had last season wasn’t surprising. After flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign, “J-Dub” made the highly-anticipated leap — and then some — that many fans and pundits forecasted before the start of the 2023 season.
The next step
Williams established himself as the Oklahoma City Thunder’s second-most reliable on-ball playmaker, behind MVP Finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. From his fearless jump-shooting in the clutch to taking on the onus of creating last-second offense at the end of the shot clock, it was a coming-out party for the 23-year-old.
With that in mind, 2024 promises to be another big step forward for the Santa Clara product. USA Today’s Clemente Almanza listed his three biggest predictions for the 6-foot-5 swingman next season, with perhaps the most intriguing one being his long-range shooting.
“This has been a talking point with Williams since he arrived in OKC,” he wrote . “He's shot 39.5% from 3 but on 3.1 attempts in his first two seasons. Sure, the efficiency is cool, but the Thunder would trade off some of those percentage points if it meant he attempted a few more outside shots a game. That ultimately will lead to more made 3-pointers, which is what matters the most. The 23-year-old loves to play within the flow of the offense and not force anything. That's both a gift and a curse. He must eventually understand that being selfish is ultimately for the betterment of the Thunder. That should set in this year, which means more shots from outside for Williams. He's too good of a pull-up scorer in the mid-range not to at least experiment a couple more feet beyond the perimeter.”
Adding an elite outside shot to your arsenal is enough to get most players at or close to their peak. For Williams, who is a proven long-distance sniper, converting over 42% from the 3-point line a season ago, any improvement from that distance will elevate his game and the entire Thunder offense.
In games where J-Dub has hit three or more 3-pointers, the Thunder are 12-5. Of those 17 games, 12 happened last season, which only begins to illustrate the kind of growing impact his outside shot has on the Thunder winning games.
Williams finished ninth in the association in 3-point accuracy a season ago. Of the eight players ahead of him, only CJ McCollum had a higher scoring average (by 0.9 points). With Jalen positioned to take another leap in the scoring department, if he can maintain his percentage from beyond the arc, he has a chance to be the highest scorer among the top 10 players in 3-point accuracy next season.
With more touches on offense and an increased role, a larger volume of outside shots is expected, which could lower his shooting percentage. But anything above 20 points per game and 40% from outside in 2024 would be golden for Oklahoma City.
Related: Three best plays in J-Dub's electrifying 2023-24 campaign
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