A crucial early-season SEC showdown in the Swamp is set for Saturday afternoon, as Florida hosts Texas A&M in Week 3 of the 2024 college football season. Both teams had high expectations entering Week 1 but lost in disappointing fashion. As the SEC opener, this matchup offers an opportunity for both to rebound in a big way.
Texas A&M wasn't totally dominated by Notre Dame in a 23-13 loss in Week 1, but it was a disappointing debut for new coach Mike Elko. The passing attack and the offense struggled that night, while the defense got pushed around by the Fighting Irish ground game in the second half. The Aggies rebounded a bit by crushing McNeese State 52-10 last week.
The '24 season is a critical one for Florida coach Billy Napier. After back-to-back losing seasons, the Gators needed to take a massive step forward against a difficult schedule for Napier to return next year. However, after an offseason of building momentum and expectations of the best roster under Napier's watch, Florida was thoroughly dominated 41-17 by Miami. The Gators rebounded in Week 2 with a 45-7 win over Samford.
The all-time series between Texas A&M and Florida is tied at three victories apiece. These two teams have not played in Gainesville since '17.
Texas A&M at Florida
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla.
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Texas A&M -3
Over/Under: 47.5
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George
Why Texas A&M Will Win
Since it's just the third game of the season, and both teams struggled in Week 1, plenty of mystery or uncertainty still surrounds both squads. However, one thing is for certain about Texas A&M: The defense should be strong. Led by a stout front that includes Nic Scourton, Shemar Turner, and Shemar Stewart, the Aggies have a favorable matchup on passing downs against a Florida offensive line that struggled in the opener against Miami.
Under new coordinator Collin Klein, Texas A&M's offense is a work in progress. Quarterback Conner Weigman struggled against Notre Dame but looked better in Week 2 against McNeese State. His status for Saturday's game is uncertain after being listed as questionable on the SEC availability report on Thursday. If Weigman can't go, the Aggies have two capable backup options in Marcel Reed or Jaylen Henderson.
Regardless of which quarterback is under center, Texas A&M's ground game should able to find running room against a Florida defense that allowed 144 yards (4.4 a carry) to the 'Canes in Week 1. The one-two punch of running backs Le'Veon Moss (154 yards) and Amari Daniels (95) should see a heavy workload on Saturday.
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Why Florida Will Win
The Gators have homefield advantage and should be eager to rebound after the awful showing in Week 1 versus Miami. Luckily for Napier's squad, Texas A&M isn't as strong as that 'Canes team, giving Florida a good shot at a small home upset.
Although the Aggies have a talented defensive front, this unit has struggled to stop the run through the first two weeks of the season, surrendering 189 yards per contest. Running back Montrell Johnson hasn't showed any side effects from a preseason knee injury, as the senior has rushed for 173 yards in '24.
If Johnson has success on the ground, Napier can play his desired style of offense, which includes an efficient passing game under quarterback Graham Mertz. The senior missed last week's game due to a concussion but is on track to return in Week 3. However, there's no guarantee Mertz plays a majority of snaps. True freshman DJ Lagway - a former five-star prospect - impressed against Samford (456 yards and three scores) and brings more big-play ability to the offense. Texas A&M has been tough against the pass, but Eugene Wilson III (13 catches so far) and Elijhah Badger (six) will test Elko's secondary.
Florida's defense ranked as one of the worst in the SEC in '23 and still has major concerns after the Week 1 loss to Miami. However, the Aggies struggled on offense against Notre Dame and have yet to find their rhythm under the new staff. Despite the question marks here, this isn't a bad matchup for the Gators.
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Final Analysis
This is a difficult game to get a read on. Which team is capable of bouncing back after a Week 1 debacle? The Swamp is a tough place to play, but Texas A&M's defense should be the best position group on the field. Also, how both teams will handle their quarterback situation is a mystery. The guess here is the Aggies make enough plays on defense to escape Gainesville with a win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Florida 20
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