What’s the outlook on SGA’s contract extension? An expert weighs in

Set to earn roughly $36 million in salary next season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Oklahoma City Thunder’s highest earner by a wide margin, with the gap expected to grow in the foreseeable future.

Fresh off back-to-back All-NBA First Team selections, the superstar point guard has positioned himself to be one of the few players in the league eligible for a supermax contract, which he can soon get his hands on.

But what is the precise outlook on the 26-year-old’s future with the team? Will he resign, and for how much?

Should OKC fans worry?

Anytime the conversation about a potential contract extension for a superstar comes up, fans tend to worry about the negative “what ifs.” Even without an extension in the near future, Gilgeous-Alexander is under contract with the Thunder through the 2026-27 season, making the timing of a new contract intriguing to monitor, especially with the team having other players soon to arrive on the extension radar.

Spectrac’s Ketih Smith recently made an appearance on Sam Vecenie’s “Game Theory Podcast,” where he gave fans deep insight into Shai’s future in Oklahoma City and how the current market will affect the kind of contract he gets.

“SGA could do what Jamal Murray did, and I think it’s probably very likely that’s what he does; he does the four-year max [contract extension] just because that starts to align things a little better for him,” Smith explained . “But if we are a year from now and those guys haven’t extended, red flags are going up for me. … I think with SGA what we’re really looking at is, ‘Alright, let me lock in an All-NBA this year. I’ll get to 35%. Yeah, I can only do four more years, but I’m gonna add the four years and go.’”

Gilgeous-Alexander’s future is very much in his ballpark. He has the option to extend his contract next summer, which can earn him a four-year contract at roughly $294 million, securing his massive payday and earning him over $80 million in the 2030-31 season, the final year of his deal.

Or, he can assume he’ll still qualify for a supermax deal in 2026 — which is essentially him betting on himself — and ink a full five-year deal worth roughly $380 million, which more than doubles the annual salary he takes home now.

Smith anticipates SGA will get business done next summer to air on the side of caution. But at the stage of his career and the excellent durability he’s shown over the years, exercising patience could yield an even bigger reward.

Related: Expect these three Thunder players to strike a career high next season