3 Most Overrated Teams in AP Top 25 CFB Poll After Week 3

Week 3 of the college football season was light on ranked matchups and seismic upsets, but some of the results were incredibly informative nevertheless. We have a new No. 1 team in the nation as a result, with Texas vaulting to the top spot in the AP Top 25 for the first time since October 2008, capturing 35 first-place votes to Georgia’s 23 and Ohio State’s five.

This week features 16 teams changing position, with two new additions to the Top 25: No. 24 Illinois and No. 25 Texas A&M. The Aggies return to the rankings after beginning the year at No. 20, but falling out of the rankings following a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame.

There were no significant jumps or falls this week. The biggest risers each moved up two spots: No. 8 Miami, which continued its impressive play with a 62-0 win over Ball State, and No. 23 Northern Illinois, which was on bye but moved up thanks to losses by Arizona and Boston College, which both dropped out of the Top 25.

No. 10 Penn State fell two spots after its bye, falling behind Miami and Oregon.

While the shakeup in the Week 4 poll wasn’t too overwhelming, there are a few programs that the voters are overrating a bit.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs

It is understandable that so many voters would be reluctant to drop Georgia too far based on one bad performance — and a win on the road against an SEC team, no less. Saturday’s game against an overmatched Kentucky team, one that was absolutely dominated at home by South Carolina a week ago, was not a positive result for the Bulldogs.

Kirby Smart’s squad faced trouble on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Carson Beck was limited to just 160 yards and did not throw for a touchdown in what was likely the worst start of his college career. Neither team impressed on offense, but Kentucky outgained Georgia 284 yards to 262. The Bulldogs held the Wildcats out of the end zone, but UK’s running backs did find room to work, with Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (98 yards) and Jamarion Wilcox (42 yards) each averaging at least 4.5 yards per attempt. Other programs with solid running games will probably be able to convert some of their sustained drives into touchdowns, rather than field goals.

ESPN’s SP+ efficiency metric , which bakes in preseason numbers, dropped Georgia from No. 1 to No. 5 after the game. Bill Connelly, the metric’s creator, calculated that the Bulldogs had just a 43.8% postgame win probability given how it transpired.

Clunkers happen, and great teams win them as Georgia did. They often aren’t this tenuous, though. Alabama had a rough start against USF last week, but rebounded for a decisive 42-16 finish. Their postgame win expectancy, for a contest that was a one-point game into the fourth quarter, was 100%.

This loss doesn’t do any real harm to Georgia’s championship outlook, and the Bulldogs can absolutely rebound and gain back that No. 1 ranking in short order. A win over Alabama in Week 5 would go a long way. Until then, even a No. 2 ranking feels hollow at the moment.

No. 18 Michigan Wolverines

It is difficult to trust Michigan as a true top-tier college football program with its current situation at quarterback. The Wolverines grinded out a 10-point win against Arkansas State , a game they entered as 22-point favorites. The Red Wolves largely squandered three interceptions thrown by Davis Warren, turning them into a grand total of three points. Arkansas State missed multiple field goals, and threw the ball right back to Makari Paige at Michigan’s 20-yard line after Warren’s third pick of the game.

Michigan’s defense remains very good, but it is not elite, as was the case for last year’s national championship team. The offense is mediocre at best. The rushing attack was dominant against Arkansas State, but has still been a bit underwhelming on the year given Donovan Edwards’ talent . He has largely been supplanted by Kalel Mullings as the Wolverines’ top option. The passing offense is ranked No. 121 in the FBS, and Michigan has just the No. 99 scoring offense in the sport.

The Wolverines already looked outmatched by Texas, and the schedule ramps back up next week with No. 11 USC coming to The Big House .

No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies are back in the Top 25 after Saturday’s win over Florida at The Swamp. It may be a bit premature to dub them one of the sport’s 25 best teams, though, as more than 60% of the AP’s voters believed.

Texas A&M looks much improved from its Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, and may have gotten a spark from quarterback Marcel Reed against Florida. The freshman from Nashville accounted for 261 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday, stepping in for Connor Wiegman who the team says is working through a shoulder injury, though was available to play.

It is hard to discount a road win at The Swamp, but Florida is in absolute shambles this season. Saturday’s game was its second double-digit home loss, after getting crushed by Miami in Week 1. And even within a strong game for the Aggies, there are concerns. The offense was just 5-for-13 on third downs, a spot where A&M has been mediocre this year, and the Aggies committed 13 penalties for 110 yards. They’re 96th in the nation in penalty yardage per game.

Mike Elko’s staff still has plenty to clean up, but they should be thrilled with the opportunity to do so off of a win, and with a MAC team waiting in the wings next weekend. The Aggies won’t have a great test until Oct. 5, when they host Missouri, giving them plenty of time to build on momentum from the Florida win. For this week, teams like Memphis or UNLV, which now has a pair of road wins over Power 4 opponents, feel like better choices for the No. 25 spot.

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