ESPN SP+ Computer Model Predicts Major Week 4 College Football Upset

College football's Week 4 slate is packed with marquee matchups that could significantly impact the College Football Playoff race.

However, one meeting stands out above the rest between new Big Ten foes. On Saturday, September 21, No. 11 USC will make its first cross-country Big Ten trip of the season and take on the defending champion No. 18 Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

While oddsmakers and most analysts around the country seem to give the edge to USC, ESPN's SP+ model is calling for an upset. Bill Connelly created the model back in 2008 and it uses tempo and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency to predict outcomes of games.

As he revealed on social media , the model has Michigan beating USC 30-26 and gives the Wolverines a 60% chance of winning.

Ironically, when Connelly posted the projected score from this game, he included two question marks after it, possibly indicating that he may disagree with the model.

It definitely feels fair to be skeptical, as there are a lot of questions about Michigan's quarterback situation. It was announced Monday by head coach Sherrone Moore, that Michigan would be giving Alex Orji the nod at quarterback after Davis Warren started their first three games before he was benched during the Arkansas State game this past week.

The offense was clearly limited with Warren at the helm, as they rank No. 106 in total offense in college football, but it's unclear how effective Orji will be through the air. He is known for being an elite athlete that Michigan has used in special packages throughout his career, but he has just seven career passing attempts.

A win for Michigan would get their season back on track, while a loss would likely mark the end of discussions regarding them as a contender.

As for USC, a loss here would undoubtedly take some wind out of their sails, as they have started the season as hot as anybody. Unlike Michigan, who hasn't found success with a quarterback that waited their turn, USC's Miller Moss has quickly become a star. He re-introduced himself to college football with a strong showing in their Week 1 win against No. 13 LSU and was complimented by a much-improved defense.

While the SP+ model has Michigan winning, ESPN has the Trojans favored by 5.5 points and gives them a 57.6% chance of winning.

The game is set to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and will air on CBS.

Related: Texas Longhorns, SEC Make Major Arch Manning Announcement After Breakout Game