Clemson hosts NC State in a crucial early-season ACC clash this Saturday for Week 4 of the 2024 college football season. This game marks the conference opener for both the Tigers and Wolfpack and plenty is at stake for both teams.
NC State was picked as a potential dark horse title contender in the ACC this preseason, but coach Dave Doeren's team is off to a slow start. Although the Wolfpack are 2-1, the loss to Tennessee wasn't close (51-10), and both victories - Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina - required late comebacks.
Clemson had an off week last Saturday, so this is just the third time to evaluate coach Dabo Swinney's team in '24. The Tigers were dominated by Georgia 34-3 in the opener in Atlanta but rebounded to crush Appalachian State 66-20 in Week 2.
Clemson holds a 60-30-1 series edge against NC State. The Wolfpack have won two out of the last three against the Tigers. However, NC State's last victory in Death Valley came in 2002. The last three meetings were each decided by 10 points or less.
NC State at Clemson
Location: Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C.
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 21 at Noon ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Clemson -20.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, and Molly McGrath
Why NC State Will Win
If NC State is going to win on the road in a tough spot, defense needs to lead the way for Doeren. Under coordinator Tony Gibson, the Wolfpack finished in the top three of the ACC in scoring defense every year from 2021-23. This year's group is going through some early renovation and has posted a mixed bag of results so far. Through three games, NC State is giving up 30.7 points a contest but ranks No. 48 nationally in success rate against the run and has forced five takeaways.
In the last three meetings between these two teams, Clemson has not averaged more than 5.2 yards a snap against the Wolfpack. Gibson's group needs a strong effort and a couple of takeaways to win on Saturday.
The emphasis on a strong defensive effort is crucial due to NC State's slow start on offense. Despite an offseason of optimism with the arrival of transfer quarterback Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina and a couple of pieces at the skill spots, the Wolfpack are averaging only 26 points a game and 5.3 yards a play.
This unit enters Saturday's game with question marks but also potential upside. McCall struggled in the team's first three games and left the Week 3 win over Louisiana Tech due to injury. Touted freshman CJ Bailey impressed with 156 passing yards and 27 rush yards last week and could be the spark this unit needs to get back on track when he makes his first start on Saturday.
With Jordan Waters, Kendrick Raphael, and Hollywood Smothers at running back, along with Noah Rogers, Justin Joly (tight end), and Kevin Concepcion in the receiving corps, Bailey has plenty of weapons to test Clemson's standout defense if the line holds up on Saturday.
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Why Clemson Will Win
Considering Clemson's success against NC State in Death Valley, along with how the Wolfpack have played this year, it's no surprise Swinney's team is nearly a three-touchdown favorite.
The Wolfpack's struggling offense will have a tough time finding ways to move the ball against Clemson's standout defense. The Tigers gave up 34 points to Georgia in the opener, but this unit is among the best in college football. NC State's offensive line has been an issue through the first month of the season and is unlikely to hold up against Peter Woods and TJ Parker off the edge.
In addition to the edge Clemson has on defense, Swinney's offense enters Saturday's game with momentum. After a poor showing against Georgia, the Tigers torched Appalachian State's struggling defense for 9.8 yards a snap. Quarterback Cade Klubnik (378 passing yards and five touchdowns) is coming off arguably his best performance in a Clemson uniform, with running back Phil Mafah (177 yards) capable of finding room against a Wolfpack front ranked 11th in the ACC against the run in '24.
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Final Analysis
It's tough to find a path for NC State to win this one. Clemson's defensive front will be too much for the Wolfpack offensive line, and Bailey making his first start on the road in Death Valley is a huge challenge. Also, even with a solid NC State defense on the other side, Klubnik will aim to carry that momentum from Week 2 into this game. The Tigers won't fire on all cylinders offensively, but it's enough to pull away for an easy victory.
Prediction: Clemson 31, NC State 13
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