Minnesota vs. No. 11 USC: Predictions, keys to watch in Big Ten matchup

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-3, 0-2) will take on another tough opponent in the No. 11-ranked USC Trojans (3-1, 1-1) at Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday night.

Minnesota has lost two straight, failing to claim the Little Brown Jug at Michigan last week and losing the Floyd of Rosedale to Iowa the week before .

It'll be another tough contest for the Golden Gophers as they face a Trojans team whose only loss came against Michigan two weeks ago. USC is coming off a 38-21 victory over Wisconsin last week. It will be the first time the Gophers face one of the new four Big Ten teams since they've joined the conference.

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Related: P.J. Fleck readies Gophers for battle with No. 11 USC

USC has the all-time record against the Gophers, going 6-1-1 and winning the past five contests. The most recent came in 2011 when Minnesota lost 19-17 in Los Angeles.

Saturday's game is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. and will be aired on the Big Ten Network. The Gophers are 8.5-point underdogs as of Thursday night.

Here's a closer look at key matchups, what to watch for and predictions for the game.

Why I'm Confident

Josh: Gophers secondary

Minnesota has been really good defensively all season, especially against the pass, but part of that is the takeaways. Only five teams in the country have more interceptions than the Gophers (8) so far, and Minnesota has faced far more passing attempts than each of the teams ahead of them.

USC will test the Gophers, as they love to pass, but the ability of Minnesota’s defense to create turnovers gives the Maroon and Gold a chance.

Tommy: Last week's loss to Michigan

Sure, it was a loss, but in many ways it's something the Gophers can use as motivation as they face another high-ranked opponent.

The loss stings not only due to the close score, but the fact it feels as if there is some unfinished business because of it. The Gophers recovered an onside kick with around a minute left in the game just for the referees to throw a flag, calling a Minnesota player offsides.

The ensuing re-kick resulted in Michigan recovering and subsequently running the clock out.

The Gophers will have another top-end team to face on Saturday and with how close they played the defending champions, they should have some confidence that they can compete.

Related: Minnesota's P.J. Fleck praises NCAA's 'accountability' following rule change after questionable penalty

Why I'm Concerned

Josh: Gophers offense

Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer has been solid in terms of yardage but he’s also thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns over the past three weeks. USC’s defense is tied for 15th in the country in stopping the pass and has as many interceptions (3) as passing touchdowns allowed.

Meanwhile, the Gophers running game just hasn’t gotten it going this year, for whatever reason. Only UCLA has rushed for fewer yards per game than Minnesota among Big Ten teams, and they’ve mustered only 117 total rushing yards combined over their last two games, albeit against good run defenses.

The Gophers are going to need to put up some points to hang with USC and this unit doesn’t give me a lot of hope.

Tommy: Minnesota's lack of consistency

Whether it's one quarter or one half, Minnesota has yet to play an entire game consistently that gives them a chance to win.

Yes, they did against Rhode Island and Nevada in back-to-back shutouts, but the same can't be said against North Carolina, Iowa and Michigan.

The Gophers failed on many opportunities on offense against the Tar Heels and led Iowa 14-7 at halftime. They also trailed Michigan 24-3 entering the fourth quarter last week.

Whether it's inconsistencies on offense that Josh pointed out or the defense making mistakes that turn into big plays for the opposing team, the Gophers can't afford to have the same results happen against a high-powered Trojans roster.

Key Matchup

Josh: Minnesota passing defense vs. USC passing offense

Nobody in the country has allowed fewer passing yards per game than Minnesota (96.8). Sure, facing Iowa and Michigan doesn’t hurt, but the Gophers have been very good defensively, as noted above.

This week will be the exact opposite of last week in terms of how the Gophers will be tested defensively. Whereas Michigan wanted to run and had little passing attack, USC is all about the pass and enters this weekend with the most passing yards per game in the Big Ten and 12th-most in the country.

The Trojans can still run the ball effectively but it’s all set up by their passing game. Slow down the latter and take the ball away and the Gophers will have another good shot for an upset.

Tommy: Minnesota run offense vs. USC run defense

If there's ever a time to wake this part of the Gophers' offense up, it's when it matters most.

As Josh previously touched on, the run game has fell off the wagon this year, something that's usually a norm every season for P.J. Fleck's team.

USC ranks 78th in run defense this season, providing Minnesota a chance to capitalize on. They've allowed 600 rushing yards in four games, with opponents averaging 150 yards per game.

The most rushing yards the Gophers have had in a game so far this year was 195 against Nevada and their next highest was 116 against Rhode Island. Minnesota has yet to eclipse 80 yards rushing against a Power 4 conference (79 against North Carolina, 79 against Iowa and 38 against Michigan).

All Eyes On

Josh: Gophers QB Max Brosmer

As mentioned earlier, Brosmer has been slinging the ball a lot in recent weeks — 77 times in just the past two games — and has some nice yardage totals. However, his efficiency and turnovers are troubling, as he’s completed just 66.2% of his passes so far this year while taking a lot of sacks and turning the ball over at a high rate, too.

Especially in these big games, the Gophers need him to stay calm, make the right decisions and take care of the ball.

Tommy: Gophers punter returner Koi Perich

The true freshman is electric and made a massive, game-changing punt return against Michigan last week.

Perich returned a punt 61 yards, completely flipping field position as the Gophers turned it into an offensive touchdown a few plays later in the fourth quarter.

Related: Koi Perich's big punt return gives Minnesota life vs. Michigan

The Trojans rank 85th in punt yards per return this season (8.29) and while it's not much to go off of, another return like that from Perich could keep the Gophers close.

Prediction

Josh: 31-14 USC

The Gophers have the ability to pull off an upset like they almost did last weekend, and that showing may give them more confidence heading into Saturday. Ultimately, though, USC’s offense is going to put up points, even against a good defense, and I don’t believe the Gophers offense will keep up.

Tommy: 35-21 USC

I'd like to believe Minnesota could pull off the upset at home but USC is just too talented in comparison to the Gophers' issues. Minnesota will keep it close with its defense but it's really on the offense whether or not it stays close.