Colorado at Arizona Score Predicted by ESPN’s Advanced Metrics

Colorado football hits the road this week for a game against Arizona, the first between the two teams since their move from the Pac-12 to the Big 12. The game is incredibly important for both programs. Colorado (4-2) wants to keep pace in the Big 12 after suffering its first conference loss of the season against Kansas State last Saturday. Arizona (3-3) needs to climb back into contention after early losses to BYU and Texas Tech have them at 1-2 in league play (Arizona’s loss to Kansas State was considered a non-conference game scheduled before realignment brought Arizona to the Big 12.)

Arizona is a slight favorite in Saturday’s game , with the opening line coming in at 3.5 points. The total points are set at 55.5, so this new Big 12 clash should be a pretty high-scoring affair.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly releases score predictions done by his SP+ efficiency metric each week. He describes SP+ as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” one that he has been developing since 2008. Colorado is currently ranked 54th in overall SP+, with the No. 29 offense, No. 70 defense and No. 111 special teams in FBS.

Arizona is six spots below them at No. 60. The Wildcats offense is well below the Buffaloes at No. 52, but they have a better defense (No. 56) and far superior special teams (No. 10).

ESPN also has the Football Power Index, a separate measure of team strength built to be a forward-looking projection model. FPI ranks Colorado 30th and Arizona 58th in the country.

Colorado at Arizona predictions from ESPN’s SP+, FPI

SP+ projects an incredibly close game in Tucson on Saturday afternoon, granting Arizona a 1.3-point edge in the game with a 53% chance to win. The rounded projected score is Arizona 30, Colorado 29, meaning SP+ likes Colorado to cover and the over to hit.

Unsurprisingly, given the difference in FPI’s ratings for the two teams, it has Colorado as a sizable favorite. ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor gives the Buffaloes a 59% chance to win Saturday’s game .

A significant factor in Colorado at Arizona will be the health of Buffaloes star Travis Hunter, as well as other contributors like Jimmy Horn Jr. and Omarion Miller. Colorado was shorthanded on offense by the end of the loss to Kansas State, as Shedeur Sanders and company fell just short of completing an impressive comeback.

Saturday’s game in Tucson, Ariz. kicks off at 4 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Fox.

More Colorado football coverage:

• Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders Predicted to Take Over for $230 Million Bust Quarterback
• NFL Mock Draft Shares Big Prediction for Colorado Star Travis Hunter
• Shilo Sanders Going Viral for Getting Ankles Broken in Colorado-Kansas State Game